Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Dallas Cowboys

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Jerry Jones and his opulent yacht. 

Booms

Michael Gallup, WR

Immediate dismissals of Gallup simply due to CeeDee Lamb’s arrival were misguided and unfair. In many draft exercises, whether 0.5 PPR or full, the explosive wideout has fallen outside the wide receiver top-30, a development every profit seeker should find attractive. Off a campaign in which he totaled 66 receptions for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns, good for a top-20 slotting at the position, his star is unlikely to lose much luster. 

Recall Randall Cobb, on 5.5 targets per game, caught 55 passes for 828 yards last fall. Lamb, expected to see a ton of action in the slot, will be fortunate to duplicate that production level. Even if he does, Gallup, the club’s best home run hitter, is in a strong position to levy numerous downfield uppercuts. Whether on nine routes or intermediate connections, he’s excelled. Gallup ranked No. 14 in total air yards, No. 17 in contested catch rate and No. 18 in YAC per reception in 2019. When you weigh his 58.9% catch percentage, it was a rather extraordinary season. 

Dallas’ highly suspect defense combined with Dak Prescott’s deep-ball execution (110.2 passer rating on throws of 20-plus yard in ‘19), is Gallup’s recipe for continued success. Based on his ADP of 67.2, a handsome ROI seems inevitable. — Brad Evans

Dak Prescott, QB

Following three years of high-floor/low-ceiling fantasy production, Prescott exploded last season and came within 99 yards of 5,000. Perhaps more importantly, he also finished as the No. 2 signal caller in fantasy football. That’s his fourth straight QB1 finish, and Prescott has never ranked worse than 11th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring.

While some might view last season as a potential anomaly, I think it’s more likely that it’s the sign of things to come. Dallas doubled down on their receiver corps in April’s draft, selecting CeeDee Lamb in the first round. That addition plus Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup gives Prescott a lethal group of weapons. And yes, the head coach is not the same, but this offense will have continuity with last year’s iteration of the Cowboys because the team retained offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Prescott’s massive ceiling/floor combination has him knocking on the door of elite fantasy territory. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Busts

Amari Cooper, WR

Each week the pooper Cooper reared his ugly head and disappeared in games last season his backers transformed into incensed Karens, laying waste to face cover displays and other nearby inanimate objects. Six times he failed to register 10 or more fantasy points in a PPR setting. His favorable finishes in total air yards (WR3) and fantasy points per touch (WR19) masked his ills, but it’s vital to look beyond the superficial numbers. His galactic explosions against Green Bay (11-226-1) and Minnesota (11-147-1) comprised 29.3% of his total fantasy production. 

Expected to again land in the 20-22% target share range even with Lamb on roster, Cooper is a suitable WR2. However, shelling out a WR top-12 pick for the uneven veteran is madness. His extreme peaks and valleys will only trigger depression and woe. — Brad Evans

Amari Cooper, WR

A completely different player since being traded to Dallas, Cooper is coming off a top-10 fantasy campaign where he topped 1,500 air yards. While it’s easy to look at that production and simply assume he’ll continue along this path, there’s more to consider here. The Cowboys were certainly one of the most productive offenses in the league last year and retaining Moore will help them continue along that path.

However, the team did add another mouth to feed in the passing game with Lamb. And that’s the real kicker here. While Cooper is still the top target in this offense, Lamb is almost certainly going to take some targets off his plate. That decrease in volume pushes Cooper down into WR2 territory. That means anyone drafting him at his current ADP as the No. 12 wide receiver will likely end up being disappointed in Cooper. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Tony Pollard, RB

Two prime examples of peak efficiency: 1) Place a meat juice-smothered plate in front of any voracious terrier and it will be squeaky clean within seconds, every time. 2) Reward Pollard with a touch and he’ll maximize yardage, dragging tacklers in the process, every time. 

With Ezekiel Elliott running wind sprints on a Cabo beach last summer, the elevated backup received valuable reps with the Cowboys first team. Though the incumbent returned from his hiatus and shouldered the load the entire regular season, Pollard’s spectacular showings during August reappeared in smatterings. No rusher with 80 or more carries posted a higher YAC per attempt (4.51). He also forced a missed tackle 25.7% of the time and ranked No. 11 in yards created per touch. 

New Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy mystified the fantasy masses with his steadfast commitment to a committee approach while calling the shots in Green Bay. Zeke is undoubtedly the workhorse, but it’s possible he cedes a few touches per game to Pollard. If the latter morphs into Dallas’ version of Kareem Hunt, he would be one of the flexiest, sexiest RBs in the fantasy game. At his very affordable 119.1 ADP (RB47), he’s a hidden star who’s bound to shine brightly. — Brad Evans

CeeDee Lamb, WR

Talent isn’t everything in fantasy football, it also comes down to opportunity. Lamb is no doubt one of the most talented rookie wideouts in the league. He posted monster numbers over the last two seasons at Oklahoma, including a massive 25 touchdowns. But the opportunity might be slightly tricky to come by after Lamb landed with the Cowboys in April’s draft.

For Dallas, this was a fantastic pick, as Lamb adds yet another receiving weapon to the stable. But Lamb’s short-term fantasy stock does take a bit of a hit due to the presence of Cooper and Gallup on the depth chart. There’s only one football and Lamb could struggle to see consistent targets as the No. 3. That said, he comes with major upside and would get an instant boost into WR3-plus territory if injury struck Cooper or Gallup. We also can’t rule out Lamb blowing past Gallup in the pecking order. While he is a bit overpriced at his current ADP of WR41, Lamb is still a very intriguing late-round option in this year’s drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe