Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Cincinnati Bengals

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Queen City Cats.

Booms

Tyler Boyd, WR

When A.J. Green’s lower extremities inevitably combust, Boyd, like last year, will be there to pick up the pieces, and the fantasy points. An oasis in a scoring desert in 2019, he compiled WR2-level numbers functioning as the team’s dirty worker underneath. Cincinnati’s Julian Edelman averaged 5.6 receptions per game and 65.3 yards per game on 24.9% of the club’s target share (147). When pressed into high-traffic situations he repeatedly split the competition, evidenced in his stupendous contested catch percentage and total yards after the catch (363). 

Naysayers will knock Boyd down a few pegs due to Green’s return, but in the past with the alpha dog in action, he’s yielded even sweeter fruits. Back in 2018 with Green on the field, Boyd hauled in 77% of his targets and tallied 14.6 fantasy points per game in a 0.5-PPR setting. To put it into perspective, that output was on par with Davante Adams’ per-game contribution last season. 

If Joe Burrow’s pinpoint accuracy exhibited at LSU last fall travels to Cincinnati, Boyd, operating as the QB’s new Justin Jefferson, is due for another 85- to 90-catch campaign. His WR31 (70.4 ADP) standing in drafts is a bargain shopper’s dream. — Brad Evans

Joe Mixon, RB

Running back holdouts are looking like they might become more commonplace in the NFL, and Mixon could be a part of that trend this season. At this point, we don’t know if he’s actually going to hold out, but we should be prepared for that possibility.

For now, what we can say is that he was fantastic down the stretch last season, ranking fourth among running backs in fantasy scoring from Week 10 on. That production is made all the more impressive given how bad the Bengals were last year. Of course, their utter ineptitude also helped land Joe Burrow in this year’s draft. With a more capable signal caller, Mixon should pick up right where he left off.

There’s certainly risk with selecting him right now in best ball drafts, but we should have a better indication of his plans when re-draft season rolls around in August. If he doesn’t hold out, Mixon has the potential to jump up into elite territory, and you won’t have to pay that price for him. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Busts

Joe Mixon, RB

Spurned. Investors lost their backsides last season sinking a pretty penny in the then third-year running back. Operating behind an offensive line that couldn’t open a hole for a muskrat (No. 31 in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders), he fell shy of expectations amassing 89.0 total yards per game with eight total touchdowns. 

To be fair, Mixon, a certifiable workhorse in a timeshare-dominated era totaling 313 touches, performed at a laudable clip in multiple advanced categories. He ranked RB22 in yards after contact per attempt (3.15), forced a missed tackle 19.5% of the time and was RB4 in yards created per touch. Thanks to Zac Taylor’s creativity, he also only encountered a stacked front on 7.9% of his carries. His RB18 finish in 0.5 PPR, however, left much to be desired. 

Undoubtedly, the arrow is pointing up for the Bengals offense, but is Mixon really a top-seven RB? It’s questionable. Despite his pure talent and high volume, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler, all going between 8-15 picks later on average in drafts, are more attractive early-round targets. — Brad Evans

A.J. Green, WR

There are few wideouts in the league with as much fantasy name recognition as Green. He’s been a top option at the position for a better part of the last decade. But therein lies the problem. Because of his highly recognizable name, Green will likely be drafted earlier than he should be in casual leagues this year.

That may seem blasphemous to some, but the proof is in the pudding. Green is entering his age-32 season and has missed 23 games over the last two years. Sure, having Burrow under center is intriguing, but Green is very much on the downslope of his career. Don’t expect even close to the same player we saw a half-decade ago. It’s likely Green is going to go overdrafted, even as a WR3 option. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Joe Burrow, QB

Through the threaded needles, opportunistic runs and satisfying post-championship cigar puffs, Burrow is coming off a collegiate season for the ages. As LSU’s gunslinger he ranked QB2 in adjusted completion percentage, notched a ridiculous 12.5 air yards per attempt, logged at least a 122.9 passer rating on across-the-board throws and finished with an absurd 60:6 TD:INT split. His competitive fearlessness, unrattled nature, quick processing and all-fields accuracy should transition smoothly to the next level. 

As is the case with any rookie, the learning curve isn’t exactly flat. Still, as Bengals OC Bill Callahan recently remarked about the youngster’s Zoom film sessions, he displayed the work ethic and cognitive skills of a 10-year veteran. Burrow will need to put teachings into practice, but he may have already conquered the biggest obstacle for any first-year quarterback. 

Cincinnati’s near bottom-barrel offensive line will need to stand up incoming pass-rushers with more zeal, but Burrow is a strong candidate to become the 12th rookie QB in NFL history to toss at least 22 touchdowns. Boyd, Green, Tee Higgins and Mixon are not exactly slouches, though Green would probably explode a tendon watering flowers. In the end, 3,900 pass yards, 300 rushing yards and 25 total TDs are attainable for the new Joe Cool. — Brad Evans

Joe Burrow, QB

Coming off arguably the greatest season in college football history, Burrow is a fascinating player to project for fantasy purposes. While the Bengals certainly struggled last season, the offense does possess a lot of talent. Burrow will be throwing the ball to two capable veterans in Green and Tyler Boyd along with upside second-rounder Tee Higgins. He’ll also have a plus weapon out of the backfield in Mixon.

Of course, Burrow won’t be playing behind a strong offensive line, and that could certainly hamper his production. But the good news is that he’s a more-than-capable scrambler who can add fantasy points with his legs. His sneaky ability as a runner plus his upside as a passer makes Burrow a very appealing upside quarterback to target in the late rounds of your drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe