Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Carolina Panthers

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Charlotte Cats.

Booms

D.J. Moore, WR

Some in Fantasyland, understandably, are fully prepared to “Shoop” for The Spinderella of Charlotte. He’s a high-volume fixture in an offense, under new OC Joe Brady, expected to mimic LSU’s scoreboard-lighting scheme from 2019. With Teddy Bridgewater at the controls, replacing largely inept Kyle Allen — who is currently backing up Dwayne Haskins in Washington — it’s widely believed the receiver will greatly exceed last year’s WR16 finish in 12-team 0.5 PPR formats. 

It’s a viable view. 

Given Teddy’s T-Rex tendencies, Moore should again entice north of 130 targets. Most importantly, the QB’s accuracy (No. 3 in adjusted completion percentage in ‘19) presents a major upgrade. Last year, Moore slotted in at WR74 in catchable target percentage. Throw in a likely positive TD regression (4 TDs, 31 red-zone targets, 48.3 red-zone catch percentage in ‘19) and his greased-pig persona after the catch — he ranked WR8 in YAC last season — and the modern day Steve Smith Sr. is a frontline weapon bound to return a WR1 value this fall. At worst, he’s slightly overpriced at his 28.8 (WR9) ADP. — Brad Evans

D.J. Moore, WR

Technically speaking, the breakout already happened for Moore, so this is the year he cements himself as a top-10 fantasy option. The Maryland product got off to a slow start in 2019, but he was fantastic from Week 5 through 15 before a concussion caused him to miss the final two games of the season. Over that stretch, he notched 913 receiving yards, which was third-most among wideouts — only Michael Thomas and Chris Godwin had more. He also ranked fifth at the position in fantasy scoring.

What made Moore’s stretch run even more impressive is the fact he was able to put up those numbers despite having a mess at quarterback for much of the year. While Bridgewater isn’t an elite option, he’s certainly an upgrade. Bridgewater also has shown that he’s a low-aDOT signal caller, and that meshes extremely well with Moore’s game. His explosive playmaking ability after the catch along with what should be an exciting offense with Joe Brady at the helm make Moore a big-time boom for 2020. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Busts

Robby Anderson, WR

Pairing a noodle-armed passer (Bridgewater ranked QB37 with a 6.1-yard aDOT in ‘19) with a streak-heavy receiver is equivalent to smashing a bag of Sour Patch Kids and washing it down with a tall glass of milk. Maybe dairy enthusiast Jim Harbaugh would relish it, but any sensible human with a normal functioning palate would find the mixture repulsive. Point blank, it’s improbable Anderson lures anything close to the 15.8-yard average depth of target and 14.9 yards per catch achieved with the Jets last season.

In the end, his limited route tree and sporadic usage will place him well outside the position’s top-40. A final line in the vicinity of 45 catches, 675 yards and 3-4 touchdowns is fitting for a pass-catcher largely available in the double-digit rounds (WR52, 135.3 ADP). Essentially, Anderson’s usual vulcanization during the fantasy playoffs isn’t in the cards. — Brad Evans

Robby Anderson, WR

Miscast as a No. 1 in New York, Anderson is actually positioned well for football purposes with the Panthers. He’ll bring a much-needed field-stretching presence to Carolina and gets paired back up with Matt Rhule, who Anderson played under at Temple. But for fantasy purposes, Anderson doesn’t have nearly as much appeal.

This is definitely one of those areas where we don’t want to just simply look back in order to project forward. Anderson largely benefited from being the only mouth to feed for a good chunk of his time with the Jets. That won’t be the case with Moore and Christian McCaffrey eating up a big chunk of the target share. Anderson also gets most of his work done downfield, with a relatively high aDOT of 14.6 yards last season. Tossing the ball deep downfield just isn’t Bridgewater’s game, so the deep targets will likely be few and far between. Keep that in mind if you’re considering drafting Anderson this year. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Ian Thomas, TE

The tight end position is the Marianas Trench of fantasy football. It’s unprecedented depth is why a number of deep-round leviathans like Thomas could surface and swallow the competition whole. An above-average athlete with an 84th-percentile burst score, he should see an increased workload with Greg Olsen, who accounted for 81 targets in 2019, presently a Seattle Seahawk. 

Last year, Thomas barely made a peep, netting a 31-16-136-1 line on 41.5% of the snap share. His size and short-area quickness could gash defenses between the hashmarks. Recall Bridgewater at times leaned on Jared Cook in New Orleans last fall and Kyle Rudolph hauled in a useful five TDs with the passer at the helm of the Vikings ship in 2015. Overall, he owns 50-600-6 upside. — Brad Evans

Curtis Samuel, WR

Speaking of being miscast, Samuel was used as more of a deep-threat option last year. He saw more air yards than Moore – 1,608 for Samuel and 1,499 for Moore – despite being targeted 30 fewer times. While this usage did help Samuel produce some big fantasy weeks, it also led to a roller coaster ride throughout the year.

However, with Anderson in place to handle the downfield duties, we could see Carolina use Samuel more like he was in his college career at Ohio State. More of an offensive weapon type, Samuel figures to benefit from Bridgewater. Expect Samuel’s aDOT to see a fairly significant reduction. Getting him the ball in space close to the line of scrimmage will lead to more consistency, and Samuel still has the speed and YAC ability to make big plays. His ADP is currently two rounds later than Anderson, but he offers the better fantasy value of the two. — Jeff Ratcliffe