Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Arizona Cardinals

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Desert Birds. 

Booms

Kenyan Drake, RB

Drake, similar to temperature readings in the Sonoran during the scorching summer months, lived in the triple digits over the second half of 2019. During his eight-game trial in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense he — freed from the moronic underutilization endured during his days on South Beach — flourished, averaging 101.8 total yards per game while totaling eight touchdowns over eight contests. Extend that production over a 16-game stretch (1,622 total yards, 16 TDs) and he’s essentially on the same plane as fantasy god Ezekiel Elliott. Muy caliente. 

Yes, Drake’s underlying numbers left much to be desired. With the Cardinals he averaged an underwhelming 2.77 yards after contact per attempt and forced a missed tackle on just 16.5% of his touches. However, because Kingsbury’s scheme maximizes spacing, Drake ran into eight-man fronts a mere 8.8% of the time, one of the lowest marks in the league. In other words, don’t fret about the Cardinals’ No. 22 ranking in average line yards allowed last season. Drake is set to bake in a system perfectly tailored to his three-down skill set. Adding DeAndre Hopkins to the offensive flow will only increase exploitable opportunities for Drake and present increased goal-to-go opportunities. 

At Drake’s RB13 ADP, he’s undervalued. This is the year it all — finally! — comes together for the veteran back. — Brad Evans

Kyler Murray, QB

This one isn’t a secret. Murray is clear this year’s consensus pick to break out among quarterbacks. And sure, he did post a top-10 fantasy finish last year, but Murray only ranked 14th at the position in fantasy points per game. He was also far from consistent. However, the thing that makes him so appealing is his ceiling/floor combination.

As a running quarterback — only Lamar Jackson had more rushing yards at the position last season — Murray gives you a high fantasy floor. He also has a potentially enormous ceiling. Arizona’s up-tempo offense is a favorite to be among the league leaders in snaps. Murray also has one of the league’s elite receivers in DeAndre Hopkins. His presence ups the ante for the Arizona passing game and gives Murray a bona fide red zone stud.

The only problem here is that even my grandmother knows about Murray. That means you aren’t going to get him at a value, and he’ll likely go too early on draft day. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Busts

Christian Kirk, WR

This time a year ago there were few industry prognosticators more bullish on the former Texas A&M Aggie. His open-field explosiveness, expanded route tree and untapped potential seduced those who bought in repeatedly. Then the season began. Kirk did post a respectable 53% situational receiving success rate according to Sharp Football, but his WR40 final standing in 0.5 PPR leagues didn’t shift the fantasy world’s tilt. Most discouraging, he ranked WR56 in YAC per reception and lured an uneventful 19.2 red-zone target percentage. 

Now with targets hog DeAndre Hopkins in tow and Larry Legend still hanging around, gut says Kirk is a prototype boom/bust candidate each week. Give me Marvin Jones, Brandin Cooks and Jamison Crowder at a similar price point. — Brad Evans

Kenyan Drake, RB

Recency bias can get even the best of us. Case in point: Drake. He was the hero of the fantasy playoffs last year, rattling off two massive performances in Weeks 15 and 16 and is now position by some — including my esteemed colleague — as a prime breakout candidate. But is that really the case?

In Miami, Drake was the butt of many a fantasy joke, even after his 16th-place fantasy finish in 2018. And that was largely because of his massive inconsistencies and extremely low fantasy floor. Heading into last season, he had just two 100-yard rushing performances. To make matters worse, his 2018 campaign included nine weeks outside of the top-30 running backs. He was a complete liability any time you even considered starting him.

Now, that’s not to knock what he did in the fantasy playoffs. He was spectacular. But we’ve seen running backs catch fire before. We can’t just use those two games to evaluate Drake for fantasy purposes. We should also consider Drake’s performances in Weeks 10-14, when he averaged 3.4 yards per carry and twice finished outside of the top-30 at the position. That Drake didn’t go away, and he’s likely to rear his head a few times in 2020. So while Drake is worthy of RB2 consideration, don’t get too carried away. He isn’t a top-10 option and shouldn’t be taken in the first round of drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Larry Fitzgerald, WR

Yes, he was born decades before ancient man discovered fire, but the future Hall of Famer isn’t completely fossilized. It’s odd listing him as a “breakout” candidate at his advanced age and given his long list of career accomplishments, but by the ADP measuring stick, the still crafty veteran is dirt cheap. Don’t be an ageist. When the impacts of a fifth IPA kick in, Fitz, through blurred vision, will look mighty attractive. Recall he topped 70 receptions 12 times in his last 15 seasons. Under the hood, his advanced analytics profile doesn’t reveal a significant skills erosion. In 2019, he finished WR16 in total yards after the catch and tucked just inside the position’s top-40 in YAC per reception (4.78). 

In the end, the venerable wideout is a solid bet to finish on the cusp of the WR3 class in 12-team .5 PPR leagues, precisely where he slotted last year. At WR66 (176.4 ADP), he’s a well-aged bottom-shelf tequila bound to pack a sizable buzz. — Brad Evans

Christian Kirk, WR

While Kirk’s arrow isn’t point up as high as it was before the DeAndre Hopkins trade, he’s still a very intriguing young player who is poised to take a big step forward in his third professional season. Kirk saw a healthy increase in volume last season, with triple-digit targets (108). He also flashed an enormous ceiling in Week 10 when he torched the Bucs for 138 yards and three scores.

That ceiling is especially appealing heading into 2020 because Kirk will have the benefit of playing opposite Hopkins. His gravitational presence will draw the attention of opposing coverage schemes which will lead to beneficial looks for Kirk. Sure, Kirk isn’t a high aDOT guy — he saw an average depth of target of 9.7 yards last season — but he doesn’t need to be targeted heavily downfield to do damage. He’s an appealing wideout to target on the cheap at his current ADP in the ninth round. — Jeff Ratcliffe