Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
In what’s considered a heavyweight matchup in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills head to the Midwest to face the Kansas City Chiefs for a Week 5 matchup that could be very impactful for future playoff seeding. The Bills have been on a scoring spree the last three weeks while their defense has shut out two teams in that span. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have righted the ship with a dominant showing in Philadelphia and are 2-2 on the season after being buried prematurely. The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites vs. the Bills with a total of 56.5.
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 5 Odds
Date/Time: October 7, 8:20 p.m. ET
Arena: Arrowhead Stadium
How to watch: NBC
Opening odds: Chiefs -2.5 | O/U 56.5 (BetMGM)
Latest Bills-Chiefs Odds
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Opening Odds – Bills vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites with nearly 60% of early bets on KC to win and cover the spread. This number is similar to last year’s playoff matchup when the Chiefs were 3-point favorites over Buffalo and won 38-24 in a rout.
As for the total, oddsmakers are expecting a shootout with the line at 56.5 and majority of early bets on the OVER. With how explosive each offense is and how the Chiefs defense has been rather nonexistent through four weeks, we could see another offensive explosion at Arrowhead Stadium.
Quarterback Analysis – Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes
After being edged out for NFL MVP in 2020, Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks to be carrying over the momentum from last year and has been lights out in 2021. Despite a hiccup in Week 1, Allen has nine passing touchdowns and only two interceptions while throwing for over 1,050 yards in four games. In last year’s playoff game vs. the Chiefs, he still put up big numbers but his accuracy was down 58.3% completion which led to a lot of stalled drives. It remains to be seen if he’s corrected that but if Week 1 loss to the Steelers was any indication, you beat the Bills by making Allen have to make tough throws.
Other than throwing four uncharacteristic interceptions so far in 2021, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes looks as good as ever in the KC offense. In Week 4, he completely diced up the Eagles pass defense with five touchdowns and has 14 passing TDs on the season. As long as he stays upright (only 5 sacks on the season), Mahomes will continue to be a threat from anywhere making a big play and throwing for a touchdown.
Latest Bills Betting News & Info
A lot of buzz will be brought up about the quarterback matchup, but it’s the Bills defense that needs to be the headline about this team. The Bills are first in scoring defense by only allowing 11 points per game and have shut out the Dolphins and Washington en route to going 3-1 in the standings.
Part of how they’ve been so effective is they’ve completely taken away the run game from their opponents. Teams are only averaging 68 yards rushing and have only scored one TD on the ground. That helped push the Bills to 3-1 against the spread through four games and it will be their first game this season as being an underdog.
Latest Chiefs Betting News & Info
After finally covering a spread following three straight games of falling short of the closing number, bettors rejoiced at profits on backing the Chiefs. Oddsmakers tend to inflate the spreads so high on Chiefs games that they almost become unbettable, which is likely why you saw the ATS regression. However, Kansas City is also so good that sportsbooks can hang a huge number for the Chiefs to hit and they’re still dangerous enough offensively to reach that summit.
The main issue for the KC this year has been its defense that continues to get carved up by opponents even if the Chiefs can put up points in a hurry. They’re second-to-last in scoring defense (31.3) while ranking in the bottom five in passing yards and rushing yards allowed.
Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Picks – NFL Week 5
Most of the public action is on the Chiefs -2.5 and I tend to agree with them. Any time you can get the Chiefs at less than a field goal, you’re almost obligated to take it as a bettor, because it comes below the magic number of 3 for spreads. Although KC has failed in this spot before, getting them in this spot at home is a no-brainer.
As for the total, it’s a bit of a coin flip. On one hand, you could see points galore, or you could see a tight defensive battle where neither team wants to make a mistake with the gravity of the game. I lean to OVER but don’t love it.
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