Betting NFL Props Using Math: Week 6


The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.

We’re targeting small same-game parlays that underestimate the correlation involved. On the season, we’re now 4-13 (+1.75 units) on the same-game parlays from this article. Let’s see if we can hit a couple this week!



James Robinson anytime TD & 85+ rush yards 

(+300 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Using our new Offensive Efficiency Tool, we can see that Jacksonville has an outstanding rushing matchup. James Robinson has 15, 18, and 18 carries in the past three games despite two strongly negative game scripts.

With 5.1 projected line yards per attempt and lots of big play potential, 85+ yards feels like a conservative estimate (17 carries at 5 YPC would get him there). Furthermore, I love his chance to score – the strong projected line yards suggests that the Jaguars should run the ball in the red zone, and the big play ability suggests he could score from outside the red zone too.

Consequently, I also love 2 TD & 95+ rushing yards for him at +1000 for .5 units.

Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD & Ezekiel Elliot 95+ rushing yards 

(+310 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

The Dallas offensive line can’t stop dominating, and New England is unlikely to stop the trend. Dallas has Sunday’s top projected line yards at 5.7 per attempt. 5.7! 

Ezekiel Elliott is averaging nearly 20 carries per game over the last four weeks and has been automatic in the red zone. I was hoping to parlay this with a small rushing total for Tony Pollard for extra juice like we hit with last week, but it’s not offered anywhere.

One final point – this game projects at a pace of 27.2 seconds per snap, the third-fastest of the day. That pace gives Zeke a great floor in terms of the number of carries he gets, even if Pollard sees the field a frustrating amount.

Stefon Diggs anytime TD & 82+ receiving yards 

(+211 FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Stefon Diggs has positive regression written all over him. His .67 WOPR is just .04 below his number from a year ago. Additionally, he’s scored just one touchdown on seven red zone targets this year, compared to seven total TDs last year, including five on 14 red zone targets. 

The TDs will come, and once they do, we won’t get odds like this anymore.

Green Bay Packers -7.5 (alternate line) & AJ Dillon 55+ rushing yards 

(+425 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

I also love adding an AJ Dillon anytime TD for +1100 at .5 units.

The offensive efficiency tool paints an ugly picture for the Bears. They have the lowest projected passing yards per attempt while Green Bay projects surprisingly well on the ground. With Aaron Jones banged up, this bet would be incredibly +EV if Jones were to be ruled out, but I like it regardless. I wouldn’t be surprised to see AJ Dillon play a big role if the Packers have a comfortable lead. After all his usage is trending up as is, with 16 and 12 touches in the past two games. 

I definitely don’t hate the idea of using the highest alternative line possible for better odds, either. It’s easy to imagine Dillon getting 15+ carries if the Packers dominate from start to finish.

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