Betting NFL Props Using Math: Week 4

The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.

After a lack-luster performance in Week 1, I switched things up for Week 2 and since then we’re rolling. In the last two weeks we’re 3-6 and +5.25 units.

Here’s what I like for Week 4:

O.J. Howard anytime TD 

(+400 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

I know, I know – this isn’t a parlay, so where’s the emphasis on math? Well, this is about the line. DraftKings is slow to react to the news that Rob Gronkowski is doubtful. They’ve left +400 hanging, while FanDuel has moved a Howard TD to +270. This is the difference between an implied 20% chance and an implied 27% chance. In other words, DK’s odds are for an event with implied odds 35% higher than FD’s line suggests.

Miles Sanders OVER 79.5 rushing yards & an anytime TD 

(+525 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Nick Sirianni has taken heat for giving Sanders just two rushing attempts in Week 3. Look for that to change as the Eagles go into a matchup with the Chiefs, who have had the worst run defense in the NFL over the last two years. 

So far this season, the Kansas City defense is:

• 29th in adjusted line yards
• 29th in power success rate
• 27th in open field yards
• 30th in second level yards

When Sanders gets the ball, good things happen:

Expect a plus performance from Sanders on Sunday.

Dak Prescott 299.5+ passing yards, Amari Cooper 69.5+ receiving yards, & CeeDee Lamb 69.5+ receiving yards 

(+360 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.5 units)

Beyond the obvious correlation between a QB and his receivers, there’s this:

As Eliot and Derek point out, Carolina is a pass funnel. Should the Cowboys throw 40+ times again, this parlay might be 50%+ to hit.

Robby Anderson 5+ receptions & 69.5+ receiving yards 

(+320 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Matt Rhule wants to get Anderson the ball:

“We have to get Robby going as an offense,” Rhule firmly stated. “Against the Saints, we kinda had a couple deep shots to him we didn’t quite connect on. If you watch the tape last night, he’s open quite a bit and the ball’s not getting to him. And the ball’s spread around to a lot of different people.”

The squeaky wheel narrative boosts the chances of Anderson catching 5+ passes, but the key to this bet is Anderson’s increased aDOT this season. After posting a surprisingly low aDOT of 10.5 yards a season ago, Anderson is all the way up to 17.7 yards with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Consequently, his 11.5 yards per reception a year ago has jumped to 20.5 so far this year. 

Should Anderson catch 5 passes, he’d only need 14 yards per reception to get to 70. Given his elevated aDOT, that should be quite easy.