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Betting NFL Props Using Math: Week 10

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The goal of this article is, of course, to provide winning picks. However, it’s also to provide a blueprint on how to cleverly bet props with math.

We’re targeting small same-game parlays that underestimate the correlation involved. We’ve upgraded our Offensive Efficiency Report to include:

  • Projected adjusted completion percentage
  • Pace projections in any game script
 

 

This week

Immediately, I notice the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers will be a track meet in any game script. However, they’re both implied to score under a field goal more than their averages. This seems like a mistake, so I’m going to hammer this game in betting and DFS this week. In fact, all four SGPs this week come from this game:

Dalvin Cook 2+ TDs & Justin Herbert 300+ passing yards

(+650 DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Kirk Cousins 305+ passing yards & Justin Jefferson 100+ receiving yards

(+400 Draftkings Sportsbook, 1 unit

Justin Herbert 3+ passing TDs & Donald Parham anytime TD

(+750 DK Sportsbook, 1 unit)

Kirk Cousins 300+ passing yards, Justin Jefferson 125+ receiving yards, & Austin Ekeler 2+ TDs

(+3023 FanDuel Sportsbook, .5 units)

Most of these speak for themselves from a correlation perspective, so I’ll just hit on a few key points. Both of these teams allow short yardage success over 75% of the time. League average is 66%. Consequently, 2+ TDs for either back is well within the range of reasonable outcomes.

Second, both of these teams have no fear in airing it out when trailing – LAC throws 76% of the time when down 7+ points and Minnesota throws 69% of the time in the same script. Lastly, why Justin Jefferson and not Adam Thielen? In addition to reports that they want to get Jefferson more targets, there’s this from our splits tool:

In games where Cousins has exceeded 300 yards passing, Jefferson averages 106 yards, compared to Thielen’s 80.

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