Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Super Bowl isn’t just about the game or the typical bets: The side, total, and moneyline.
It’s primarily about the props. Hundreds and hundreds of props.
I’m of course betting on the side and total because I’m a degenerate, but I don’t really care who wins the game — because I’m a degenerate, and that means I’ll be betting on as many obscure props as I can.
In this article, I break down the two props I like the most at BetMGM.
You can find all my bets in the FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription. Game odds via our Super Bowl betting odds page. Historical data against the spread (ATS) and for the total goes back to 2003.
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl Odds
- Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 13, 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: NBC
Super Bowl 56 Coin Toss Winner to Defer
- Odds: -500
At -500 odds, bettors wager $500 for every $100 they wish to win.
These odds are steep. No denying that. But they’re not nearly steep enough. This year, the Rams have won the coin toss 10 times, and they have deferred all 10 times. Similarly, the Bengals are 11-of-11 winning and deferring.
And this isn’t just a 2021 thing.
In five years as a Rams head coach, Sean McVay has deferred on all 48 of his coin toss victories. As for Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, he has deferred on all but one of 26 coin toss victories in three years.
No one likes paying juice, but this prop offers significant value.
Pick: Coin Toss Winner to Defer (-500)
Limit: -2000
Super Bowl 56 First Score to Be a Field Goal
- Odds: +165
At +165 odds, bettors wager $100 for every $165 they wish to win.
Quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford are two of the best passers in the league, respectively ranking Nos. 3-4 in composite expected points added (EPA) and completion percentage over expectation (0.155 and 0.147, per RBs Don’t Matter).
The Bengals and Rams can both put up points. But historically, teams have been tight to open the Super Bowl. Over the past 22 Super Bowls (since 2000), the first score has been a field goal in 54.5% of those games.
Both McVay and Taylor are conservative, situational playcallers who are fine settling for field goals instead of attempting to convert fourth downs.
Over the past half decade, no team has attempted more field goals than the Rams (2.3 per game). And in 10 games since the Week 10 bye, Bengals kicker Evan McPherson has attempted 3.1 field goals per game. In the postseason, he’s had four attempts in each game.
Early on, both coaches will likely be fine just getting some points on the board instead of pushing for touchdowns.
Finally, sports bettors are likely to want to root for touchdowns instead of field goals, and that dynamic has likely skewed this line.
With +165 odds, this prop has an implied probability of 37.7% (per our Betting Odds Calculator), but I think the true odds are closer to 50%.
Pick: First Score to Be a Field Goal (+165)
Limit: +130
