Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Wide receivers are being drafted earlier than ever, especially on Underdog, despite it being a half-PPR scoring format. This has created an interesting dynamic in draft rooms, pushing down every other position. Although it may sound easy to zig while others zag and scoop up the falling values, getting boxed out at receiver can be a death knell and will make it harder to make up points at the position later in drafts. Until ADP shifts with more casuals coming in near the start of the season, my preferred approach is to attack receivers early, starting “Zero” or “Hero” RB and punting the position later in the drafts. In this article, I’m going to highlight a few running backs who stand out as targets and are available beyond the dead zone and after Round 7.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 95.9, RB28)
Raheem Mostert enjoyed a rare breakout for a running back in his ninth season, posting his first 1,000-yard campaign, and finishing first in the NFL in rushing touchdowns. He set career-highs across the board, handling 209 carries for 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns. As a pass-catcher, Mostert saw just 32 targets through 15 games but still found the end zone three times through the air. Health has been a concern for Mostert in past years, but not since joining Miami. He has suited up for 15-plus games in back-to-back seasons. Even at 32 years old, Mostert should handle the lion’s share of the snaps in a Dolphins offense that finished second overall in DVOA this past season (20.9%) and averaged a league-high 401.3 yards from scrimmage and 3.6 touchdowns per game. Although there is more competition with the addition of fourth-round running back Jaylen Wright, head coach Mike McDaniel still referred to Mostert as the lead of the group.
He’s unlikely to score 21 touchdowns again this upcoming season but should maintain his stranglehold as the preferred back in the red zone. He saw a team-high 53 opportunities inside the 20-yard line despite missing two and a half games.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 111.0, RB33)
Tyjae Spears carved out a significant role in his rookie season and immediately earned the trust of the coaching staff and took Derrick Henry off the field in critical situations. In fact, according to the FTN Snaps Count Tool, Spears saw exactly the same number of snaps as Henry through 17 games (588) and dominated the backfield on passing downs. He posted a 94% snap share in long down-and-distance situations and showcased his versatility through the air. Spears trailed Henry in touches, but still hit the century mark in carries (100) and totaled 453 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. He was also third overall in the NFL in explosive rush rate (22.7%) behind only De’Von Achane (29%) and Jaleel McLaughlin (22.7%). As a receiver, Spears was one of only three players on the Titans roster to see 70-plus targets (70) and/or catch 50-plus passes (53) and logged 385 yards and a touchdown through the air. Although the team brought in Tony Pollard in free agency, new head coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz have called the two running backs “interchangeable” as a “1a/1b.”
Still, Spears is much cheaper in drafts as the younger and more explosive back set up from a breakout sophomore season.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 125.6, RB38)
Ezekiel Elliott fared well in his one-year stint away from Dallas and handled a team-high 184 carries for 642 yards and three touchdowns. He also led the Patriots in receptions with 51 catches on 65 targets and totaled 313 yards and two touchdowns through the air with career-high marks in yards per route run (1.27) and yards after catch per reception (7.4). Once Rhamondre Stevenson went down with an ankle sprain in Week 13, Elliott became a workhorse and saw 21.2 opportunities on an 87% snap share over the last five weeks of the season. He averaged 19.8 touches, 74.4 yards from scrimmage yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 13.7 half-PPR points per game during that span. Despite entering his ninth NFL season, Elliott should get the first crack at the lead-back role for the Cowboys. Although Pollard’s 2023 campaign was disappointing as a lead back, especially in the scoring department, his 57 carries inside the red zone trailed only Christian McCaffrey among all running backs. Converting on scoring opportunities should not be an issue for Elliott, who has historically had a knack for finding the end zone with double-digit touchdowns on the ground and two through the air in three out of the last four seasons.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 140.1, RB43)
Until Dallas brings in a free agent or makes any sort of significant trade in the offseason, the entire backfield is worth targeting even in the same draft with both Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle available beyond the first 10 rounds. As a former UDFA, Dowdle was largely off the radar at this time last season and entered his third year in the NFL with less than 25 combined rushing and receiving yards (24) on just seven total touches. After winning the RB2 role in training camp, Dowdle fared well as the complementary back to Tony Pollard and often looked like the best player in the backfield. He made the most of his opportunities and handled just shy of 90 carries through 16 games and rushed 89 times for 361 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. As a receiver, he was one of the most efficient backs in the league and finished top 10 at the position in yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35) with 144 yards and two touchdowns through the air. Although I expect Elliott to get the nod as the starter, head coach Mike McCarthy has been open about using a committee approach this upcoming season, calling Dowdle “one of the lead guys in the room.”
Dowdle should still see significant work in relief of the 29-year-old back, especially on passing downs. He provides cheap access to a high-flying Cowboys offense that ranked No. 1 overall in scoring this past season and averaged 29.9 points per game.
