Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Underdog Fantasy brought back their “Weekly Winners” tournament, which combines Best Ball and DFS into a single contest. For those of you not familiar with the format, the tournament features $1.7 million in prizes with $100k in payouts distributed to the top 4,000 highest-scoring teams each week.
The top-heavy weekly payouts make it critical to prioritize ceiling over floor, even if it means taking on a bit more risk. Because your scores get reset every week, targeting players with the boom/bust, “better in best ball” profile is a lot more valuable when you’re simply playing week-to-week. In this article, I’m going to highlight a few players I’m boosting up in “Weekly Winners,” who possess a wide range of outcomes with the ability to finish as the top scorer any given week.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
There may not be a single player with a higher weekly ceiling than De’Von Achane, who had a historic rookie season and set records in efficiency. He was explosive with the ball in his hands and averaged a league-high 7.8 yards per carry with the highest mark ever charted across an entire season among players with at least 100 rushing attempts. Even as the second running back in his own backfield, Achane still finished as the RB4 per game and averaged 16.5 half-PPR points in the fantasy regular season (Weeks 1-17). He was the clear No. 2 behind Raheem Mostert and played on just 41% of offensive snaps with a sub-35% rushing share in 10 games since joining the active roster in Weeks 2-17. As great as Achane was, he had trouble staying on the field. He failed to exceed double-digit snaps twice and missed five games due to multiple different injuries. It’s too early to label Achane as injury-prone after just one NFL season, but the risk of missing time is less critical in a week-to-week contest. According to head coach Mike McDaniel, Achane has been working on his diet and strength throughout the offseason and is set to have an expanded role this upcoming season.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Three years removed from a historic triple crown campaign with Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP awards, Cooper Kupp’s career has been on a downward trajectory. He’s missed significant time due to injuries and played no more than 12 regular season games in back-to-back seasons. Although the 2023 Rookie of the Year, Puka Nacua, has seemingly passed Kupp in the pecking order, their usage has been nearly identical – separated by just one target when both were active. Kupp’s production wasn’t nearly as consistent since he shared the field with another alpha, but he still flashed a high-end ceiling and posted three finishes inside the top four at the position. Based on the early offseason reports, Kupp looks fully healthy entering training camp with a lot of juice left in the tank entering his age-31 season.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
George Kittle showed no signs of slowing down in his age-30 season and posted his first 1,000-yard campaign since 2019 and led all tight ends in yards per route run (2.22) and receiving yards (1,020). He finished just behind Brandon Aiyuk for second on the team in receptions and receiving yards and finally put together a healthy season. He snagged 65 of 90 passes for 1,020 yards and six touchdowns in 16 games. With Brock Purdy under center, Kittle saw a lot more looks downfield and posted a career-high 15.7 yards per reception, which led the position in 2023. Despite ending the season as a top-five tight end, it was hard to rely on Kittle for consistent production. He finished as the TE20 or worse in seven out of 16 games (43.8%). His scoring was a lot more predictable with Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel out of the lineup, where he finished as a top-five tight end in two out of three games without either one of the receivers and never fell below eighth at position.
