Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Underdog first introduced “The Eliminator” in 2023, combining best ball and guillotine leagues into a single contest, but with no waivers. As the name suggests, the lowest-scoring teams are eliminated and paid out week-to-week as follows:
| Week | Advancement | Rate | Payout |
| Week 1 | 10/12 | 83.3% | None |
| Week 2 | 8/10 | 80% | None |
| Week 3 | 8/10 | 80% | None |
| Week 4 | 7/10 | 70% | None |
| Week 5 | 6/8 | 75% | None |
| Week 6 | 6/8 | 75% | None |
| Week 7 | 5/8 | 62.5% | None |
| Week 8 | 7/10 | 70% | $15 |
| Week 9 | 5/7 | 71.4% | $20 |
| Week 10 | 3/5 | 60% | $30 |
| Week 11 | 4/7 | 57.1% | $40 |
| Week 12 | 5/9 | 55.6% | $50 |
| Week 13 | 6/10 | 60% | $75 |
| Week 14 | 5/9 | 55.6% | $100 |
| Week 15 | 5/10 | 50% | $200 |
| Week 16 | 5/10 | 50% | $300 |
In Week 17, there will be 115 total teams remaining, competing for an overall top prize of $100k to first. Although getting to Week 17 still offers the greatest return on investment, the Eliminator is much more about surviving and advancing, rather than constructing a team built to score the most points in the finals. In this article, I’m going to break down how my strategy differs in this particular tournament compared to Best Ball Mania. Before jumping in a draft, be sure to check out Tyler Loechner’s full list of Eliminator Rankings.
Best Ball Strategy — The Eliminator
Stacking
Stacking is still a priority in the Eliminator, limiting the things you need to get right in order to advance week-to-week. However, because teams are eliminated each week, game stacks are less critical in the environment and are more likely to hurt you than help you. I prefer to use Week 17 game stacks/bringback as a tiebreaker among players within the same tier, primarily focusing on stacking individual teams. When a team does well or exceeds expectations, the players involved are more likely to succeed and outperform their average draft position, elevating your weekly advancement rate. As a result, overstacking is more viable in this contest, taking advantage of the weekly variance and trying to soak up all the points from an entire offense.
Playoffs and Payouts
There are no playoffs in the Eliminator, with teams getting paid out as early as Week 8. Although the prize pool distribution is greater in the back half of the season, you only need to finish inside the top 70-83.3% in Weeks 1-6 and avoid finishing bottom three out of eight (62.3%) in Week 7 to return a profit. As a result, my ideal approach is to take as little risk as possible, and draft teams that are just good enough to survive the first eight weeks. This could mean prioritizing veterans and aging players more than usual, likely to provide stable early-season production, with the risk of tailing off toward the end. Rookies should not be ignored, but are less valuable in this format, especially on Underdog with first-year players priced at a premium. Players who are returning from an injury or set to miss time due to a suspension should also get pushed way down the board, hurting your early-season advance rate.
Floor vs. Ceiling
For many of the factors listed above, players with a greater floor or median range of outcomes should be boosted in this format, even if their ceiling is somewhat limited. They may not have the upside to be “the guy you need,” capable of carrying your team throughout the season, but are less likely to bust and score enough points to crack your lineup more often than not. Rather than debating floor vs. ceiling, the priority in this format is consistency, targeting players with a track record of yielding stable production. The boom/bust, “better in best ball” profiles are far less appealing when the goal is to simply survive week-to-week.
Onesie Positions
One of the best ways to insulate your floor in the Eliminator is to have enough firepower at the onesie positions (quarterbacks/tight ends) by spending early draft capital and/or attacking it through volume. Having an elite quarterback and tight end is my preferred approach but may not always be possible due to your draft slot or lobby. If you get squeezed out of the higher-end options, it’s important to attack the positions with depth, leaning into three quarterbacks and tight-end builds. I prefer to have every quarterback stacked, but adding on a naked signal-caller such as Bo Nix at the end of the draft isn’t the end of the world.
Bye Weeks
Taking a zero on your roster is never a good thing, but it hurts you even more when teams are eliminated every week. One bad week can make or break you in the Eliminator, which is why paying attention to the schedule is crucial, especially at quarterback and tight end. Doubling up on bye weeks at the onesie positions is one of my favorite ways to get unique in this format, but it’s important to always tack on a third option with a different bye.
