Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL season may be over, but the draft season has just begun, with pre-draft best ball tournaments already in full swing. After filling “The Big Board” contest, Underdog Fantasy has launched “The Big Board But Superflex,” featuring $500k in total prizes and $100k to first. The contest requires a $10 entry fee (150 max) and consists of 20,409 total entries. For those looking for a more budget-friendly option, there is also “The Little Board” which is just $3 per entry (2 max). “The Little Board” is a much smaller field, with only 3,552 entries, but it still has a prize pool of $50k and $10k to first. Regardless of your contest selection, both are filling fast and the time to draft is now.
One of the best ways to extrapolate value in these early contests is to embrace uncertainty and take a shot at the incoming rookies. A lot can change between now and the NFL Draft, but first-year players tend to rise later in the offseason, simply by placing a team behind the name. Although we won’t know the rookie’s landing spot by the time these contests close, we can use other resources to help predict draft capital. Players drafted earlier usually exceed their ADP the most and have the best chance to contribute to your rosters early and often. In this article, I’m going look at which rookies are being devalued within their class, based on their positional rank on Underdog compared to their projected draft capital on NFL Mock Draft Database.
CJ Stroud, QB
Underdog Rookie Rank: QB2 or QB3
NFL Mock Draft Database Rank: QB1
After the Panthers traded away DJ Moore and a haul of draft picks to the Bears, CJ Stroud jumped to the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 overall to Carolina. Since then, videos of the team’s coaching staff falling in love with Stroud have surfaced throughout social media strengthening the perceived notion. Despite leapfrogging Bryce Young as the top candidate for the first quarterback selected, Stroud is still being drafted after Young on Underdog. He’s the second rookie signal caller off the board in superflex and the QB3 behind Anthony Richardson in single-quarterback. There seems to be a misconceived perception of Stroud’s fantasy value after a remarkable career at Ohio State.
Since taking over for Justin Fields, Stroud led the Buckeyes to a 21-4 record as a starter while setting 16 different school records for passing and total offense. Over the last two seasons, Stroud threw for over 8,000 yards (8,123) and 85 touchdowns, finishing top three in the nation in passing efficiency and passing touchdowns in 2021 and 2022. He was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year twice and became the first two-time Heisman Trophy finalist in program history. One of the most appealing things about Stroud’s profile is his ability to keep his composure under pressure and perform on the big stage. After trailing by 14 in the 2021 Rose Bowl, Stroud led his team to a 48-45 victory, throwing for the most yards (573) and touchdowns (6) in the game’s 108-year tenure. Per PFF, his highest-graded career game was his final one, against Georgia in the 2022 college football playoffs. Stroud put on a show against the best defense in the nation, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns. He also flashed upside as a rusher, tacking on 70 yards on the ground (excluding sacks). His stock has continued to skyrocket with strong outings at the NFL combine and Ohio State’s pro day.
Zach Evans, RB
Underdog Rookie Rank: RB11
NFL Mock Draft Database Rank: RB6
Zach Evans has been one of the most polarizing prospects since coming out of high school, with a lot of question marks. Evans was a highly sought-after recruit with a 5-star rating and trailed only Bijan Robinson in the 2020 running back class. He spent his first two collegiate seasons at TCU but had little production operating in a running by committee. He broke out after transferring to Ole Miss this past season, handling 156 touches for 1,055 yards and 10 touchdowns. Evans was unable to participate in the NFL Combine, dealing with a hamstring injury but fared well at the Rebels’ Pro Day. At 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds, Evans clocked in with an unofficial 4.45 40-yard dash which would have ranked as the sixth fastest among running backs that tested at the combine.
Cedric Tillman, WR
Underdog Rookie Rank: WR9
NFL Mock Draft Database Rank: WR7
Cedric Tillman had a slow start to his collegiate career, largely off the radar after catching just eight passes for 124 yards and two touchdowns in his first three seasons. In 2021 however, Tillman burst onto the scene logging 64 receptions for 1,081 yards and 12 touchdowns. He helped put Tennessee back on the map, becoming the first 1,000-yard receiver since 2012, while setting a school record for most consecutive games with a receiving touchdown (7). There was a lot of excitement for Tillman who opted to return for a fifth season, but he failed to live up to expectations, appearing in just six games, limited by an ankle injury. He was also overshadowed by Jalin Hyatt who went on to become the first Volunteer to win the Biletnikoff Award. Despite a disappointing final season, Tillman has been generating buzz recently and was mocked to the Chiefs, with the final pick of the first round by NFL draft analyst Lance Zierlien.
DeWayne McBride, RB
Underdog Rookie Rank: RB13
NFL Mock Draft Database Rank: RB7
DeWayne McBride has been widely overlooked in the pre-draft process, stemming from a non-power five school, but has quietly been one of the most productive running backs in the 2023 class. Over the past two seasons, McBride has accounted for over 3,000 yards from scrimmage at UAB (3,113) to go along with 29 rushing touchdowns. In 2022, McBride posted a career-high 1,713 rushing yards which ranked first in the FBS. The main knock against McBride is his lack of receiving production, catching five passes in three seasons, however, his elite-level efficiency on the ground still provides a valuable role in the NFL. According to the PFF Big Board, McBride ranks as a top-five running back in the upcoming class but is consistently available in the final round of Underdog drafts.
