Handcuffing your own running back has historically been viewed as a minus-EV strategy and insulating your floor rather than shooting for a ceiling. In a large-field tournament such as Best Ball Mania, we want to “draft as we are right,” and assume we will hit on nearly every pick. With that said, even if you are correct on your player takes, it’s important to understand the current landscape of the running back position. It has continued to get devalued, both in real life and in fantasy. Looking at just last season, team backfields as a whole totaled the fewest amount of combined opportunities, touches and fantasy points – with the NFL continuing to become a more pass-centric league.
Even the high-end backs separated far less frequently from the field, with only four surpassing 230 half-PPR points in the fantasy regular season (Weeks 1-17). In comparison, seven wide receivers hit that mark in a scoring format that favors running backs, with Keenan Allen falling just outside the threshold due to a lost season, scoring 224.9 half-PPR points in 13 games. Aside from the decline in overall volume to the position, every-down bell-cow backs have become a dying breed with more teams opting for a committee approach. In this article, I’m going to highlight a few backfields I’m looking to target at their current cost, with a mix of contingent and stand-alone value. In the early to mid-rounds I prefer drafting players with the ability to crack my starting lineup and pay off ADP without needing an injury in front of them.
Best Ball Backfield Pairings to Target
Miami Dolphins
De’Von Achane, ADP: 23.4, RB7
Raheem Mostert, ADP: 93.7, RB28
I don’t typically handcuff running backs that are both being drafted within the top 100 picks, but I’m willing to make an exception for the Miami backfield. De’Von Achane is the first back off the board and available at the second- to third-round turn after a historic rookie season. He set records in efficiency and averaged a league-high 7.8 yards per carry and posted the single highest mark ever charted across an entire season among all players with at least 100 rushing attempts. Even as the second running back in his own backfield, Achane still finished as the RB4 per game and averaged 16.5 half-PPR points in the fantasy regular season (Weeks 1-17). He was the clear No. 2 behind Raheem Mostert and played on just 41% of offensive snaps with a sub-35% rushing share in 10 games through Weeks 2-17. Entering Year 2, Achane’s snap share and volume should go up in an expanded role, according to head coach Mike McDaniel.
With that said, Mostert should still be the lead in the backfield after a rare ninth-year breakout. Mostert led the NFL in touchdowns last season and also rushed for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. He set career-highs across the board and handled 209 carries for 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns. As a pass-catcher, Mostert saw just 32 targets through 15 games but still found the end zone three times through the air. Health has been a concern for Mostert in past years, but not since joining Miami. He has suited up for 15+ games in back-to-back seasons. Even at 32 years old, Mostert should handle the lion’s share of the snaps in a Dolphins offense that finished second overall in DVOA this past season (20.9%) and averaged a league-high 401.3 yards from scrimmage and 3.6 touchdowns per game. Although there is more competition with the addition of fourth-round running back Jaylen Wright, head coach Mike McDaniel still referred to Mostert as the lead of the group.
Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard, ADP: 100.9, RB29
Tyjae Spears, ADP: 107.4, RB31
The Titans cleaned house this offseason and made significant changes in the front office and finally moved on from Derrick Henry. As the new head coach, former Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan looked to free agency to find a replacement for Henry and signed Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.8 million contract. Pollard disappointed fantasy managers last season but showed he was capable of being a lead back with a career-high 307 touches last season. From Week 11 on, Pollard finally began to look himself and ranked as PFF’s No. 1 graded rusher. He’ll join Tyjae Spears in the backfield, who carved out a significant role as a rookie, even taking Henry off the field in critical situations.
In fact, according to the FTN Snaps Count Tool, Spears saw exactly the same number of snaps as Henry through 17 games (588) and dominated the backfield on passing downs. He posted a 94% snap share in long down-and-distance situations and showcased his versatility through the air. Spears trailed Henry in touches but still hit the century mark in carries (100) and totaled 453 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. He was also third overall in the NFL in explosive rush rate (22.7%) behind only De’Von Achane (29%) and Jaleel McLaughlin (22.7%). As a receiver, Spears was one of only three players on the Titans roster to see 70-plus targets (70) and/or catch 50-plus passes (53) with 385 yards and a touchdown through the air. Although the team brought in Pollard in free agency, Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz have called the two running backs “interchangeable” as a “1A/1B.”
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott: ADP: 121.8, RB37
Rico Dowdle, ADP: 137.1, RB43
Ezekiel Elliott fared well in his one-year stint away from Dallas and handled a team-high 184 carries for 642 yards and three touchdowns. He also led the Patriots in receptions with 51 catches on 65 targets and totaled 313 yards and two touchdowns through the air with career-high marks in yards per route run (1.27) and yards after catch per reception (7.4). Once Rhamondre Stevenson went down with an ankle sprain in Week 13, Elliott became a workhorse and saw 21.2 opportunities on an 87% snap share over the last five weeks of the season. He averaged 19.8 touches, 74.4 yards from scrimmage yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 13.7 half-PPR points per game during that span. Despite entering his ninth NFL season, Elliott should get the first crack at the lead-back role for the Cowboys. Although Tony Pollard’s 2023 campaign was disappointing as a lead back, especially in the scoring department, his 57 carries inside the red zone trailed only Christian McCaffrey among all running backs. Converting on scoring opportunities should not be an issue for Elliott, who has historically had a knack for finding the end zone with double-digit touchdowns on the ground and two through the air in three out of the last four seasons. Until Dallas brings in a free agent or makes any sort of significant trade in the offseason, the entire backfield is worth targeting even in the same draft with both Elliott and Dowdle available beyond the first 10 rounds.
As a former UDFA, Dowdle was largely off the radar at this time last season and entered his third year in the NFL with less than 25 combined rushing and receiving yards (24) on just seven total touches. After winning the RB2 role in training camp, Dowdle fared well as the complementary back to Pollard and often looked like the best player in the backfield. He made the most of his opportunities and handled just shy of 90 carries through 16 games and rushed 89 times for 361 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. As a receiver, he was one of the most efficient backs in the league and finished top 10 at the position in yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35) with 144 yards and two touchdowns through the air. Although Elliott should get the nod as the starter, head coach Mike McCarthy has been open about using a committee approach this upcoming season, calling Dowdle “one of the lead guys in the room.”