Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The early Underdog best ball drafters have spoken: Late-round quarterbacks are back. I’m not here to say whether that’s good or bad (more on that another time), but I am here to point it out and tell you how to take advantage.
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The Fall of QBs: 2023 vs. 2024
We’ve already explored five elite QBs who have seen their ADP plummet from 2023 to 2024 – and whether or not you should be buying at their new prices – but this article will take a look more at the macro trends in drafting.
(Hint: Justin Herbert is a value right now. There’s a whole piece on that, too.)
One macro trend has been most apparent: The decline of QBs across the board.
| # of QBs drafted by… | 2023 | 2024 |
| End of Round 2 | 2 | 0 |
| End of Round 3 | 4 | 2 |
| End of Round 4 | 6 | 3 |
| End of Round 5 | 7 | 5 |
| End of Round 6 | 8 | 6 |
| End of Round 7 | 8 | 9 |
| End of Round 8 | 10 | 10 |
| End of Round 9 | 13 | 12 |
| End of Round 10 | 15 | 15 |
By the end of Round 10 (pick No. 120), 2023 and 2024 best ball drafts had each seen 15 QBs come off the board. But in every other round before that, 2024 has trailed 2023, and significantly in some cases (Well, except for Round 7, we’ll touch on that….).
Best ball drafts have decided that the early-round QB is dead this year. No QBs get drafted in the first two rounds in 2024 after two went inside the first 24 picks last year. Drafters are scooping up three QBs combined in Rounds 3 and 4 this year, but that’s half as many that were off the board by Round 4 last year.
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Why are we not drafting elite QBs this year?
I want to attack this macro trend by drafting elite QBs earlier this year. Exactly how much earlier is really up to you. You might think a certain QB is worth a Round 3 pick, but if his ADP is Round 5, you aren’t doing yourself any favors scooping him up that early, even if it aligns with your rankings.
Patrick Mahomes has slipped after a subpar 2023 fantasy season. Josh Allen lost his top two WRs. Lamar Jackson won MVP, but it was the weakest MVP season in recent memory and not dominant from a fantasy perspective. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles fell off a cliff to end 2023. Joe Burrow is returning from injury (again), and Tee Higgins’ status is up in the air. Justin Herbert has no WRs anymore. And we’re not even sure if Trevor Lawrence is really elite anymore.
Combine all of those questions above with the steady guys like Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and Brock Purdy available in the later rounds, and it’s a recipe for what we’ve seen happen on the ADP boards this year.
The flaw in the thinking
I’m going to dive into this more in a future article, but while all of the questions about the top-tier QBs are valid in a vacuum, the odds of them all collectively having a down year again in 2024 seem slim. Jackson just won MVP with only 24 passing TDs! Mahomes only threw 27 himself!
Right now, we’re drafting 2024 QBs based on 2023 results, and I think that will lead to most of these elite QBs being good values where they are being drafted.
How to take advantage
Of course, late-round QB is still a valid strategy. You can and should take advantage of these larger trends and scoop up an elite QB in the mid rounds – like Joe Burrow in Round 7! – and take some of the late-round guys.
I do, of course, like where guys like Goff, Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa are going. But I am more drawn to where the “former elite” have fallen to, including Herbert, Lawrence and Matthew Stafford, and maybe even Aaron Rodgers.
