Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
(All summer, Adam Pfeifer will be putting the tightest fantasy football picks under the microscope in our ADP Decisions series.)
The sophomore receivers are so, so exciting this season. Two burgeoning stars in this league are Jerry Jeudy of the Denver Broncos and Laviska Shenault of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both wideouts have insane skill sets and are tremendous WR3 options in fantasy football.
(Join this FREE contest at DraftKings Sportsbook to earn your share of $20,000.)
The Case for Jerry Jeudy
If you just watch Jeudy play, you can tell that he truly has superstar potential in the NFL. His rookie season was very turbulent, however, as Jeudy’s efficiency was actually among the league’s worst at the wide receiver position. Jeudy hauled in just 52-of-113 targets for 856 yards and three touchdowns. His 45% catch rate was tied for the lowest mark among all wideouts with at least 50 targets. Meanwhile, Jeudy had an issue with drops, as his 12 drops trailed only Diontae Johnson. Luckily, drops don’t really matter and aren’t a sticky stat. And Jeudy had the ability to drop 12 passes because he showcased an ability we saw from him during his time at Alabama– getting open. With incredibly quick feet, Jeudy is truly already one of the best route runners in the NFL, as he has the ability to change directions at an elite level. And of course, not all 12 drops were on Jeudy. Denver’s quarterback situation was arguably the worst in football last year and as a result, just 57% of Jeudy’s targets were deemed catchable, which was tied for the third-lowest rate among all qualified receivers. And with Courtland Sutton out for essentially the entire 2020 season, Denver used Jeudy down the field, as he sported an average depth of target of 14.06, the ninth-best mark among receivers with at least 50 targets. However, just 35% of his targets 20 yards or more down the field were deemed catchable, which was the sixth-lowest rate among wideouts with at least five deep targets last year.
Jeudy is far too talented to be among the league’s least-efficient receivers and the efficiency is going to climb during his second season, especially with Sutton back healthy. He saw 23 deep targets last season so with Sutton back in the lineup, I could see Jeudy becoming Teddy Bridgewater’s Robby Anderson from last year, which resulted in 136 targets and one of the highest first read shares in all of football. Of course, this Denver offense isn’t the same as Carolina’s but Jeudy will likely be used closer to the line of scrimmage with Sutton back in the lineup, which should drastically improve his efficiency. In terms of volume, it will be interesting to see how many targets Jeudy gets. He averaged just over seven targets per game last year with Sutton sidelined and the Broncos defense missing pieces. Last year, the Broncos defense was rather depleted, resulting in this unit surrendering 27.9 points per game, the eighth-most in football. Opposing offenses scored points on 44.6% of their drives against Denver, the eighth-highest rate in the league. I expect this defense to flirt with top-10 status this season and with Denver having one of the best-projected schedules for rushing, the Broncos will likely look to lean on the run this season. Still, with his route-running ability, Jeudy is going to get open and earn targets. The hype is climbing lately but Jeudy remains an exciting WR3/FLEX option in fantasy.
The Case for Laviska Shenault
This time last season, I was insanely excited to watch Shenault play football in the NFL.
Fast forward to today and absolutely nothing has changed.
Shenault put together a successful rookie season, catching 58 balls for 600 yards and five touchdowns. He also rushed for nearly 100 yards on 18 carries, which will quietly be part of his game going forward. Shenault finished 25th among receivers in fantasy points per snap (0.27) and when the football was in his hands, he was explosive, ranking eighth in football in missed tackles forced after a reception with 16. His yardage wasn’t terrific, however, as Shenault eclipsed 65 yards just three times all year. Shenault’s aDOT of 6.3 was the sixth-lowest mark among all receivers with at least 50 targets last season. Fortunately, Shenault is electric after the catch, averaging over five yards after the catch per reception during his rookie campaign. Heading into the 2021 season, the Jacksonville offense more than likely won’t suddenly transform into a top-12 unit but there is no doubt they will be better than last year. Trevor Lawrence is now under center and we saw the connection between the number-one selection and Shenault during the team’s final preseason game. Meanwhile, new head coach Urban Meyer is going to manufacture touches for Shenault, whether that be in the screen game, jet sweeps, you name it. And with Travis Etienne unfortunately lost for the season, Shenault should dominate the short-yardage targets/touches in this offense. And with DJ Chark and Marvin Jones operating on the outside as downfield targets, the middle of the field should present plenty of real estate for Shenault. Like Jeudy, Shenault will be drafted in the WR3/FLEX range but has serious potential.
The Verdict
This is extremely close, as both players have immense upside as number-three receivers or even flex options in fantasy. However, I think there is a better chance that Jacksonville’s passing volume has a higher ceiling and Shenault is such a versatile player that he gets the nod here. Both players have serious breakout potential entering their second seasons in the league.
