Aaron Rodgers 2022 Prop Bets: Passing Yards, TD Predictions

Aaron Rodgers has won back-to-back NFL MVP awards, but you might not know it by looking at his 2022 prop bets. The Green Bay Packers star is outside of the top 10 when it comes to projected passing yards, and his passing touchdown total is well below what he’s produced during his award-winning seasons.

Rodgers is not one of the 11 quarterbacks who has an over/under total of at least 4,000 passing yards at FanDuel Sportsbook for the 2022 NFL season. Rodgers’ prop for passing touchdowns is 31.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook, putting him behind six quarterbacks. 

During his recent MVP seasons, Rodgers was not a top-five passer. Rodgers’ 4,299 yards in 2020 were good for seventh in the league, and he ranked 10th in 2021 with 4,115 passing yards. Rodgers threw a league-high 48 touchdown passes two seasons ago. He had 37 touchdown passes last year.

The loss of Davante Adams is the biggest reason why Rodgers’ stats are expected to take a hit. Adams’ 1,553 receiving yards were three times greater than any other Packers player in 2021, and he received close to 30% of the team’s overall targets. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rodgers’ second-favorite target, is also gone. 

Green Bay failed to replace Adams with an established No. 1 wide receiver. Can Rodgers have another MVP-caliber campaign with his new supporting cast?

Let’s take a look at the odds for Rodgers’ passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.

Aaron Rodgers Prop Bets for 2022

Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.

How Many Passing Yards Will Aaron Rodgers Have In 2022?

Over 3,950.5 Yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Because some sportsbooks have set the total for Rodgers’ passing yards at over 4,050 yards, FanDuel offers the best value for this prop bet. All Rodgers needs to average is 233 yards per game in order to go over his total. Rodgers has averaged 263.4 yards per game over the last four years, and he never threw for fewer than 250 yards per game in a season during that span. If Rodgers misses a game due to injury, he can still get to the 247 yards per game needed to go over his total. In seven of the last eight seasons, Rodgers hasn’t missed a single game due to injury. 

No matter who is catching passes for the Packers, Rodgers is still one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Allen Lazard is in line to be Green Bay’s No. 1 wideout. Lazard came on at the end of last season, averaging 58 yards per game. His production should increase significantly because of his new role in the offense. No. 34 overall draft pick Christian Watson is the x-factor of Green Bay’s receiver group. Robert Tonyan can be a productive receiving tight end when given the opportunity. 

Rodgers has had some big games without Adams in recent years. In the seven games that Adams has missed since 2019, Rodgers has thrown for an average of 292.7 yards, or a 4,976-yard pace for a 17-game season.

How Many Touchdown Passes Will Aaron Rodgers Throw In 2022?

Under 31.5 TDs (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The best place to bet Rodgers’ under for touchdown passes is DraftKings. Other sportsbooks have his total at 30.5 touchdowns or offer worse odds for 31.5 scores. Without a bonafide No.1 receiver on the roster, Rodgers could have a difficult time getting to 32 touchdowns. Now that Adams is gone, expect Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to be utilized more near the goal line. The running backs had 16 attempts inside the five-yard line in 2021, and eight of them went for touchdowns.

Adams’ presence will certainly be missed in the red zone. Adams was third with 27 red-zone targets and fourth with 18 receptions inside the 20-yard line last season. Adams was second in the league behind only Cooper Kupp with 14 targets inside the 10-yard line, seven of which went for touchdowns.

Rodgers’ 2022 season could look similar to his two seasons prior to winning back-to-back MVP awards. When Adams missed four games because of an injury in 2019, Rodgers threw for 4,002 yards and 26 touchdowns. In 2018, Rodgers had 4,442 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes. From 2015-2019, Rodgers only surpassed 31 passing touchdowns in one season.

How to Bet Aaron Rodgers Props

Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.

Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.

Aaron Rodgers’ regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 3,950.5 yards. The over and the under both have -112 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much money you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet.

A winning $112 bet on Rodgers to throw over 3,950.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $212 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $112 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Rodgers’ over for passing yards would come with an $89.29 profit.

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.