Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The glitz and glam the first round of the NFL Draft brings is the yearly spectacle. The mocks and talk of the town center around the top 32 selections. But the middle rounds of this process are where teams can separate themselves. Finding value and diamonds in the rough can turn a strong draft haul into a legendary one. With the help of Benjamin Robinson's Grinding The Mocks expected draft position data, we'll discuss some players that are being underrated in the NFL Draft that have the potential to shine when given the opportunity.
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Hunter Long, TE (EDP: 111)
Long’s expected draft stock has plummeted recently. Long held an EDP in the 80s as recently as the beginning of April, but now he finds himself outside the top 100 players. A player with his production resume should not last until the fourth round of the draft. Among all tight ends with at least 25 targets over the last two seasons, Long has ranked 20th (1.74, out of 58 tight ends) and second (3.15, out of 89 tight ends) in yards per route run. As his previous EDP suggested, the immediate production he can offer an NFL offense as a receiver warrants third-round draft capital. If Long slips to a team with a shallow wide receiver depth chart (hello, Houston Texans), don’t be surprised if he has an Evan Engram-esque rookie season.
Trey Sermon, RB (EDP: 112)
Trey Sermon flashed his upside as an NFL rusher during his well-known two-game stretch of dominance in 2020 against Northwestern and Clemson. Many will pigeonhole him as a flash in the pan because of this two-game sample, but nothing could be farther from the truth. Outside of those two games, Sermon ran for 6.1 yards per carry in his final season at Ohio State. Going back to 2017 at Oklahoma, Sermon ranked 15th among 227 running backs with 75 or more rushing attempts in yards after contact per attempt (4.15). Sermon might not be the pass-catcher that others in his class are, but his pass-blocking acumen gives him possibilities to garner a three-down workload at the next level. Over 241 pass-blocking snaps, Sermon allowed only one sack, five hurries and seven quarterback pressures. If an NFL team looks to address other positions first in the draft before selecting their workhorse in the middle rounds, Sermon could be their target.
Seth Williams, WR (EDP: 123)
Williams' college production quietly jumps off the page. Williams checks multiple boxes that foretell of future NFL success from his 98th percentile breakout age (18.4) to his 83rd percentile college target share (29.3%) and his 78th percentile college dominator (38.9%). Williams racked up all of this despite catching passes from the lackluster duo of Jarrett Stidham and Bo Nix during his three years at Auburn. Williams' size (6-foot-3, 211 pounds) and profile as an outside wide receiver (77.6-88.5% outside snaps over the last two years) put him among a small handful of such prospects in this class. If he had the gaudy counting stats that come with better quarterback play or a pass-first college offense, Williams would be rumored as a Day 2 pick. Whichever team selects him on Day 3 could be getting a steal this year.
Anthony Schwartz, WR (EDP: 134)
Yes, in case you're wondering, there's a theme here. Two Auburn wide receivers on this list should illuminate the subpar quarterback that they've had to contend with since 2018. Another detriment to Schwartz was the abysmal passing volume at Auburn. Since 2018, Auburn has ranked 71st, 77th and 52nd in the country in passing attempts per game. The program never surpassed 32.9 passing attempts per game in this span. While Schwartz doesn't check the early career production boxes, he does jump off the page in other areas. Schwartz's game-breaking 4.32 adjusted pro day 40 speed gives him game-changing ability when he touches the ball. Over the last two seasons, he also ranked 53rd (out of 227 wide receivers with 40 or more targets) and 36th (out of 362 wide receivers with 40 or more targets) in yards per route run. Schwartz is a sneaky speed receiver that offers a team lightning in a bottle from the first snap.
Simi Fehoko, WR (EDP: 146)
Fehoko’s age (23.4) will turn many people off his prospect profile before taking the time for context. Fehoko was a four-star prospect per 247sports entering Stanford after shattering Utah high school records. He racked up 3,571 receiving yards and 41 receiving touchdowns in his prep career. Fehoko then embarked upon a two-year LDS mission to South Korea before returning to Stanford to begin his collegiate career. The former Stanford receiver is a size-speed specimen standing at 6-4 with a 4.49 adjust pro day 40 time and 95th percentile speed score. In 2020 he finished 29th out of 227 wide receivers in yards per route run (2.73). Fehoko looks to be just scratching the surface of his immense talent, so the best could be ahead for him in the NFL.
