Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
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We have shifted to a two-game slate after the cancelation of the Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens game. We have a game between the Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys that has playoff implications – believe it or not – and a game between the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions.
Typically this article would have my 10 favorite plays under 10% ownership, but with only two games on the slate, that isn't really feasible. Instead, I am going to do my five favorite plays at 10% ownership or less, the guys whose builds will make you different, which will give you a chance to take down the top prize.
Marvin Hall, WR, Detroit Lions
Kenny Golladay is out and Marvin Jones should see shadow coverage from Bradley Roby in this one. That opens up Detriot's Marvin Hall as the secondary option. Hall has a great matchup against the Texans, who are 24th in DVOA against WR2s this year, allowing 6.6 targets per game. He will see Vernon Hargreaves, who has the highest target rate and most fantasy points allowed of any Texan DB this year. Hall also has an aDot of 18.46 yards, the highest of any player on the team, and nearly double Marvin Jones’ aDot of 9.8. Hall will get a few shots down the field and if he is able to come down with them, he can win you a GPP.
Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans
With Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills out, Coutee should step into a full-time slot role. Last week when Cobb exited, he played 53.6% of the snaps, running 25 routes and seeing four targets, including three red-zone targets. His quarterback will be the highest owned player on the slate while his running mates, Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, are both projected as the two highest owned players on the slate. While Coutee can’t hold a candle to the talent of Fuller and Cooks, he is still a dynamic athlete who is an excellent leverage play. He also gets the best matchup of the three, facing off against Justin Coleman, who allows a 74% catch rate, the highest on the slate. Double stacking Watson with one of Fuller and Cooks while adding Coutte will differentiate chalk builds.
Cam Sims, WR, Washington Football Team
Any time you look for low-owned plays on the main slate, you can still have plenty of star power. On a two-game slate, however, forget about it. Sims has been second on the team in snaps played and routes run for four straight weeks, and takes on a Cowboys secondary that has been demolished all season long. His targets have been sparse (11 last three weeks), but he does get downfield targets, seeing a 10.2 aDot and averaging 9.1 fantasy points during that time span.
Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Gallup has been one of fantasy football’s biggest disappointments this year. Ever since the Dak Prescott injury, the Cowboys have not been able to sustain two receivers, none the less three. However, Andy Dalton came back last week against Minnesota, and the Dallas offense looked as good as they have in a game since Prescott went down. Now, Gallup will run half of his routes on the right side of the field, where Washington is 31st in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). Priced at just $3,500, Gallup offers too much upside in this matchup with his talent at sub 10% ownership.
Detroit Lions defense
The Lions defense simply stinks. However, when you play a defense, you have to realize you are dealing with a high degree of variance. On short slates, I like to attack low-owned defenses, especially against average offensive lines. Are the Lions likely to be the highest-scoring defense, no, but if only 5% of people play them, I have 20-1 on the Lions being the highest-scoring defense against bad Cowboys, Texans and Washington defenses. I would have 15-20% when MME’ing and just embrace the variance that is the defensive position.
