Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Our fantasy football rankers are some of the best in the business, but that doesn’t mean they always agree. Twice a week, our rankers will highlight some names they are furthest from the staff consensus fantasy rankings on and explain why you should either be targeting those players or steering clear in your 2024 drafts.
One of the classic television commercials from the late ‘80s was from Domino’s Pizza. The character dubbed “The Noid” signified all the challenges of delivering a pizza in under 30 minutes. Domino’s always found a way to deliver their popular pizzas in under that allotted time, frustrating the Noid in each commercial.
In fantasy football, our “Noids” are early-round disappointments. The majority of our fantasy points in redraft leagues are scored in the first few rounds. There are always exceptions, whether a late-round quarterback, rookie running back or surprise tight end value that helps guide your fantasy team to a championship. But the foundational scoring of any redraft team is always found in the early rounds.
So today, I’m offering up my thoughts on three players who are being drafted too high in best ball drafts as of mid-July Underdog ADP.
3 You’re Too High On for 2024
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
If Jahmyr Gibbs ascends to the lead running back in this Detroit offense, his current RB4 ADP is reasonable. But drafting timeshare running backs at their ADP ceiling while throwing out the word “if” is a dangerous fantasy game to play.
A bet on Gibbs at this ADP is strictly a bet against David Montgomery. Pet FTN charting data, Montgomery still ranked 15th among all running backs in carries (219) and fifth in red zone touches (53). If that doesn’t drastically change, Gibbs doesn’t even approach his current ADP. The 27-year-old Montgomery more than doubled Gibbs in goal-line touches (13 to 6), the most lucrative fantasy touches of all. Given head coach Dan Campbell’s effusive praise for Montgomery, I don’t see that changing.
When Montgomery missed two games with bruised ribs last season, Gibbs flashed his massive fantasy upside, posting consecutive RB3 and RB1 performances in Weeks 7 and 8. Using our FTN Splits Tool, however, there was still a chasm of a difference in fantasy production when Montgomery was on the field with Gibbs.
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