Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every season, we’re told how deep the tight end position is, or can be, for fantasy football. But we haven’t really heard that this year. And I think it’s because all of this year’s top breakout candidates are, for the most part, the same as last year’s.
It forces us to admit that they didn’t actually break out last season and reduces our hope that it will happen this year, either.
Heading in to 2021 fantasy football drafts, we have three TEs obviously at the top: Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller, in some order. For a decade-plus, the TE position has been dominated but just two or three names at the top, so this is nothing new.
After this trio we have Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts, slightly followed by (or in the eyes of some, matched by) T.J. Hockenson. I think you could make the case Hockenson qualifies as a 2021 breakout candidate, but considering his high ADP, I’ll exclude him from the list. Pitts is a rookie and also is already entrenched atop the ADP list, and Andrews had his breakout back in 2019.
You could make a “breakout season” argument for every TE that comes off the boards after that, but we’ll set the bar really high for this article: Today, we’re looking at three TEs that have the potential to break out in such dramatic fashion that they’d be drafted as no-brainer top-five TEs next season.
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Dallas Goedert could finally break through in fantasy
Dallas Goedert is in the best position of all the later-round TEs to have a true pop-off season. He would have been the easiest “breakout” pick in the world had cut-candidate Zach Ertz actually been cut or traded, but I’m still placing all of my chips on Goedert.
Ertz was borderline useless — and arguably harmful — as a receiving “threat” last season. He caught only 50% of his targets and gained a putrid 4.93 yards per target, anchored by 2.4 average yards after the catch. Goedert earned 8 yards per target and gained twice as many YAC as Ertz.
I think it’s easy to make the case Ertz was fed the ball last season out of necessity and that the Eagles won’t have to do it again in 2021. With Jalen Reagor entering Year 2 and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith now on the roster, Ertz could well be phased out of the offense, allowing Goedert to gobble up the TE targets for himself. If that happens, he vaults into the top five.
Irv Smith has a sky-high fantasy ceiling in Minnesota
Irv Smith’s potential to become a top-tier fantasy TE relies on one thing happening: Adam Thielen falling off.
So how reasonable is it to expect Thielen, 31, to fall off in 2021? I’m not predicting it, but there are some signs. For starters, Thielen has caught just 4.2 passes per game over the last two years after averaging 6.4 in 2017-2018. He also missed time in both 2019 and 2020. His yards per game dipped from to 82.2 in 2017-2018 to 53.8 in 2019-2020.
Thielen’s big value prop in 2020 was his 14 TDs on only 74 receptions, giving him a TD rate of 19%, which is just preposterous to expect to repeat. (For comparison: In 2017-2018, Thielen caught 204 passes but 13 TDs, a more reasonable 6.3% rate).
To no surprise, Smith saw his TDs more than double in games in which Thielen didn’t score, per the FTN NFL Splits Tool:
Before you throw things at me, remember that I’m looking for the players with true stud potential out of the sea of legitimate “breakout TE” candidates in 2021. Smith fits the bill, and the way I see it, Thielen is the only thing standing in his way.
Robert Tonyan’s big 2020 could lead to an even bigger 2021
By the time October rolls around, there’s a good chance we’ll all be wondering why Robert Tonyan was being selected at the tail end of the TE1s on draft day. Yes, his 21.1% TD rate is not going to be replicated, but is it a reach to think Tonyan will be among the league-leaders in TDs at the position again in 2021? Certainly not with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball.
Tonyan wasn’t just all TDs, either. His 1.31 RACR (receiving yards divided by air yards) was elite, putting him alongside names like George Kittle (1.37 RACR) and Travis Kelce (1.16).
Tonyan did his damage with just a 12.6% team target market share. Behind Davante Adams (34%), the target tree in Green Bay is not settled. All of Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Tonyan ended up in the band of 12.5% and 16% target market share last year.
If Tonyan can climb to the top of that post-Adams target share — putting him in the 80-90 target range — he could really push for some big fantasy numbers in 2021. Considering how tight everything was behind Adams last year, and how successful Tonyan was, it’s certainly in his range of outcomes.
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