Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle shocked everyone by drafting Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, one season removed from drafting Kenneth Walker in the second round of the 2022 draft. When given the opportunity, Charbonnet showed promise he could be a lead back in an NFL offense. The problem was being stuck second on the depth chart and getting less than half the targets and touches Walker saw despite playing one more game.
What Went Wrong
The team he was drafted to, which is exactly what I said about fellow Seahawks sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Getting stuck behind Walker was a worst-case scenario for Charbonnet’s immediate production. Charbonnet had just three games over 10 rushing attempts and three games with 10-plus PPR points. Despite playing in one more game than Walker, he was outcarried 219-108 and saw just three more targets. With the Seahawks running the fewest plays in the NFL in 2023, being on the lesser half of a running back committee held Charbs back more than his play on the field.
What Went Right
He looked the part on the field and earned more snaps as the season progressed. Charbonnet’s snap percentage didn’t dip under 20 after Week 6 and ended the season just 3% less than Walker, 45% to 48%. His involvement in the passing game also increased where he averaged three targets over the final eight games after averaging 1.7 over the first seven.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Thankfully, Pete Carroll is gone. With the hiring of Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator, there’s hope that Seahawks running backs could be used in the passing game more than they were in the Carroll era. It’s an exciting development for the fortunes of Charbonnet, who out-targeted Walker. There should be more opportunity regardless, as Grubb runs the antithesis of a Carroll offense. You can write it down in a permanent marker, bookmark this article, or do whatever… Seahawks will not be last in plays run again after having 995 in 2023, the only team in the NFL under 1,000.
Dynasty Outlook
Unlike his teammate JSN, the roster clogger in front of him isn’t nearing the end of his prime. Being drafted just one season prior, Walker isn’t going anywhere. However, I do see Charbs as a dynasty buy, depending on the cost. There’s always the chance that Grubb’s Seahawk offense is explosive enough to support both backs, similar to Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery in Detroit. His ceiling will be capped as long as Walker is around. Still, if you can acquire him for a Raheem Mostert or James Conner, he’ll be productive enough to warrant a move of that nature. He’s flex-worthy with RB2 upside if the Seahawks offense takes off.
