Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season and turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
Over the course of the summer, we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Will Mallory, TE, Indianapolis Colts
Will Mallory had an impressively consistent college career, posting three straight 300-plus receiving seasons while averaging 13.4 yards per reception. Over five seasons at Miami, he amassed 1,544 yards and 14 touchdowns. Despite having a quiet Senior Bowl week, his NFL Combine showcased his athletic traits, including a 4.5 40-yard dash on a 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame. He has above-average hands and long strides that sneak up on defenders on vertical routes, and these traits helped NFL teams envision him developing into a premier passing attack threat. So it was no surprise on draft day when the tight end-needy Colts selected him with the 162nd pick in the fifth round.
Mallory joined a crowded but unproven tight end room, competing against Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox – all of whom had not surpassed 400 receiving yards in their careers. As a fifth-round rookie tight end, Mallory was often overlooked by many, especially in standard redraft leagues, though he might have been a late-round flier for those in dynasty formats.
What Went Wrong
As a rookie, Mallory saw limited playing time, participating in only 12.9% of the team’s snaps, the fewest among tight ends on the roster. In this role, he received just 26 targets and caught 18 of them for 207 yards but did not score a touchdown. Consequently, he contributed only 29.7 half-PPR fantasy points to any manager who rostered him.
Beyond fantasy stats, Mallory struggled as a blocker, an area where he also had difficulties in college. This lack of blocking ability restricted him primarily to a pass-catching role. The concern is that if he does not improve as a blocker, he may see even less playing time and eventually give way to players who excel as blockers and receivers.
What Went Right
Although the sample size is small, advanced stats for Mallory are impressive. He caught 18 of 26 targets, with no drops recorded by FTN Data – and only 18 of those 26 targets were deemed catchable. His 53.8% success rate on receptions was the highest among Colts tight ends. Additionally, his 1.8 yards per route run (YPRR) was the best mark among Colts tight ends and was sixth in the NFL among qualified tight ends, according to FTN Data.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Entering 2024, Mallory’s situation remains challenging. The tight end room is still crowded, with Woods returning from injury and Granson, who led the team in receiving last year, along with Mo Alie-Cox also on the roster. Despite his rookie success, Mallory would need to surpass all these players to gain a significant role on a run-first offensive attack. Given the Colts’ recent strategy of utilizing multiple tight ends rather than relying on one, it seems unlikely that Mallory will become a prominent fantasy option. For now, all the Colts tight ends remain relevant primarily for streaming purposes.
Dynasty Outlook
In the dynasty landscape, Mallory’s situation is somewhat more promising. As a rookie, he demonstrated quality hands and the potential to be highly productive when given the opportunity, which is encouraging for his long-term outlook. Currently, Granson is the primary pass-catching tight end, and his contract expires after this season.
However, Mallory’s path to relevance largely depends on the coaching staff’s willingness to adjust their target distribution. If they shift to a more concentrated target share, Mallory could find opportunities. Nevertheless, without such a change, he may end up being a roster clogger and easily expendable when a more enticing waiver wire addition comes along.
