Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Trey Palmer, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Trey Palmer was an intriguing prospect entering college, a four-star recruit per 247sports. Beginning his career at LSU, he struggled to find playing time behind Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall Jr., Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers, accumulating just 458 yards and 3 touchdowns in his three years as a Tiger. Seeking more opportunities, he transferred to Nebraska for his final season, when he put up 1,043 yards and 9 touchdowns. Known for his vertical ability, it was no surprise when the Buccaneers drafted him in the sixth round, pick 191, of the 2023 NFL Draft.
The Buccaneers desperately needed some speed in their wide receiver room, which Palmer brought to the table. With no established third option behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, it was easy for people to make a case for Palmer as a potential sleeper in fantasy. This was not the case, Palmer finished as the WR73 with a mere 76.2 half-PPR points.
What Went Wrong
Despite securing a role, Trey Palmer struggled to produce meaningful fantasy points. He received 68 targets but only caught 39 of them, despite 56 (83%) being deemed catchable by FTN Data. His drop rate of 8.5% was the second highest among players with over 60 targets on the team. Palmer managed just 385 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging only 0.9 yards per route run, 21st among rookie wide receivers.
What Went Right
Palmer played himself into the clear third receiver role early on, leading to him playing 63.8% of the snaps and running a route on 71.5% of them. With this, he saw an 11.2% target share and 751 air yards, both ranking third on the team. Once he had the ball in his hands, he did look good, showing the explosiveness we saw at Nebraska and the ability to win at multiple levels, amassing 103 yards after the catch. Even in earning this significant role, as I outlined above he failed to seize the moment and cement himself as the third receiver going forward.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Palmer’s outlook isn’t promising this year. After he didn’t produce a lot in his rookie opportunity, the Buccaneers drafted Jalen McMillan early in the third round to address the position. While McMillan lacks Palmer’s speed, it suggests Palmer may only retain a modest role as a field stretcher. However, this role seems unlikely to be significant, especially considering even with more opportunities in 2023 he struggled to produce consistent fantasy points.
Add in a new offensive scheme to learn, as the Buccaneers transition from Dave Canales to Liam Coen, and despite the similarities between the schemes, there will be a learning curve. Totaling all of these factors it is safe to say he will be irrelevant in 2024 for fantasy outside of an injury.
Dynasty Outlook
We can paint a pretty picture for Palmer if we really want to for his future, but it seems like a waste — ultimately, Palmer is a better football player than a fantasy asset. As Chris Godwin and Mike Evans age, opportunities will arise. Jalen McMillan profiles as a replacement to Godwin, while Palmer doesn’t project as a fill-in for either. Despite his role being potentially locked in, he is a field stretcher who will always operate in a volatile target range, this will produce a few boom weeks but won’t breed consistency, creating a massive headache for yourself if you roster him.
