Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tank Bigsby was a polarizing running back in the 2023 NFL Draft. During his time at Auburn, he accumulated 2,906 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns, along with 62 receptions for 448 yards, showcasing dual-threat capability. Despite this production, concerns lingered about his vision and consistency. These doubts somewhat eased when the Jaguars selected him with the 88th pick.
We knew Travis Etienne would have a significant role, but the Jaguars had made it clear they wanted to spell Etienne more often, leaving a significant role open for the taking. During mini-camps and training camp, Bigsby impressed coaches and secured this backup role in the offense, resulting in his redraft stock rising into the mid-rounds, but this proved to be a mistake.
What Went Wrong
Almost everything.
Despite securing the backup role before the season started, Bigsby had a limited impact during his rookie year. In Week 1, he scored a touchdown on one of his seven carries but also had a critical drop that resulted in an interception. From there on, his role diminished throughout the season, only receiving more than three carries in a game twice, in Weeks 10 and 16. Additionally, he was targeted only three more times all year, with one catch for six yards. His lack of production was evident as he never exceeded 35 rushing yards in a game and averaged a mere 2.6 yards per carry.
This all led to a very unproductive fantasy season, only amassing 22.3 half-points and an RB86 fantasy finish.
What Went Right
When you only receive 50 carries and 4 targets on the season, it is hard to find much that went correctly, but he did produce 65 of his 132 yards after contact. Outside of this, there was nothing to hang our hats on.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Heading into 2024, the Jaguars have made minimal additions to their running back group in the offseason, aside from drafting Keilan Robinson in the fifth round. This has sparked some optimism that Bigsby could have a turnaround season. It will be the first time in his career that he won’t be learning a new playbook, allowing him to play at full speed from the start.
Furthermore, the Jaguars have expressed a desire to limit Travis Etienne’s touches and involve Bigsby more. If Bigsby can earn 10-12 touches per game, he could become a flexible option in redraft leagues. However, his ability to secure red zone opportunities alongside increased touches will be crucial. It feels like a long shot that Bigsby will become a viable option weekly, but he is still one of the more affordable handcuffs to roster.
Dynasty Outlook
Tank Bigsby’s career in dynasty isn’t over yet, but it’s hanging by a thread as he enters his age-23 season. There’s still time for Bigsby to develop into a viable fantasy option, but significant improvement is crucial in 2024. With Travis Etienne entrenched as the lead back for the foreseeable future, Bigsby’s upside is limited. However, if he can secure a split role as mentioned earlier, he could provide flex-level fantasy production in deeper dynasty formats. Bigsby’s role as the primary backup to Etienne makes him a necessary roster addition until the Jaguars indicate otherwise.
