Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
Rarely is there a rookie tight end who lives up to the hype and produces in fantasy immediately. Sam LaPorta did just that, knocking off Travis Kelce for the most points scored at the position and jumping straight into the conversation for TE1 overall in dynasty. LaPorta became an important cog in the Lions offense, seeing five or more targets in 15 of 17 games. Quarterback Jared Goff looked for him in the red zone as well. His 16 red-zone targets led LaPorta to 10 touchdowns, the league lead at the position.
What Went Wrong
Not a whole lot. He had four drops, the seventh most among tight ends. LaPorta had nine games with fewer than 50 receiving yards, so if the touchdown production crashed back down to earth, there’s a chance he falls back toward the middle-to-back end TE1 conversation.
What Went Right
LaPorta quickly became an integral piece in the Lions offense and a favorite target of Jared Goff. He was one of two Lions players with a target share of over 20%, and his 120 targets were second on the team to none other than the Sun God himself, Amon-Ra St Brown. Among tight ends, LaPorta ranked in the top five in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards and red-zone targets and was the only one with double-digit touchdown catches. In a world where we’re constantly disappointed in the overhyped first-round tight end falling flat on their face (I believe in Joe Hendry Kyle Pitts), LaPorta is one of the few who lived up to, if not exceeded, expectations.
Prognosis Entering 2024
For the past few seasons (possibly the past decade), Travis Kelce has been the consensus first tight end off the board. That’s not the case in 2024, with LaPorta taking that honor in ADP at the time of this writing. His 10 touchdown catches helped push him to the top tight end in total points and TE3 in points per game. Still, even if he regresses in that department, LaPorta sees enough volume to easily maintain TE1 status. He has become the 1B to St. Brown’s 1A, a rarity for tight ends. The Lions offense was one of the best in the league last season; to repeat this season, LaPorta has to be heavily involved.
Dynasty Outlook
The Lions should continue as one of the league’s best over the next few seasons with their offensive core locked up. LaPorta and fellow sophomore Jahmyr Gibbs have at least two years remaining on their rookie contracts, and Detroit extended the contracts of both Goff and St. Brown this offseason. LaPorta has already ascended to elite tight end status and has a legitimate argument for overall TE1 in the dynasty.
