Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
Rarely do rookie tight ends produce immediately like Sam LaPorta and, to a lesser extent, Dalton Kincaid did in 2023. Taken just one pick after LaPorta, there wasn’t much you could take away from Michael Mayer’s rookie season to signal he can come close to hitting his perceived ceiling. A strong finish compared to the start of his season had given Mayer truthers somewhat of a reason for hope. All that changed when the Raiders shocked the NFL world by taking highly touted Georgia tight end Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
What Went Wrong
Barely a factor in the passing game, Mayer saw the fourth-most targets on the team (40), just three more than No. 5 Hunter Renfrow. Not ideal in any scenario, let alone on a Raiders team that fielded one of the worst offenses in football. Vegas was bottom-10 in nearly every team offensive category, throwing for just 3,666 yards and 20 passing touchdowns. Mayer only had seven games with multiple targets compared to six with one or less. A toe injury kept him from playing in the final three games of the season.
What Went Right
While Mayer failed to have a single game with 100 or more receiving yards, his usage did see an uptick in the second half of the season. After Josh McDaniels was fired in Week 8, Mayer saw more targets in his final six games (23) than his first eight and had two of his three games with double-digit fantasy points. His final game of the season was his highest scoring from a fantasy perspective, with four catches for 39 yards and a touchdown, equating to 13.9 PPR points.
Prognosis Entering 2024
He wasn’t as highly touted as the generational tight end and new teammate Brock Bowers. Still, there were expectations he could be an offensive weapon like he was at Notre Dame, where he holds tight end records in receptions (180), receiving yards (2,099) and touchdowns (18). The addition of Bowers buries any chance of a breakout sophomore season and extinguishes the ever-so-slight flame of hope he conjured up with his solid play down the stretch.
Dynasty Outlook
It’s hard to find a player whose value took a more significant hit in a short period than Mayer. The selection of Bowers cratered his long-term outlook. Mayer will still see the field at a decent clip, especially with the Raiders expected to use two-tight end sets. Bowers can line up all over the field; sharing the field in numerous situations is not out of the question. But the Raiders’ offense is still one of the worst in the league, with more questions than answers about their long-term outlook. Outside of a Bowers injury, Mayer is nothing more than a low-end TE2 until he no longer dons the silver and black.
