2024 FTN NFL Power Rankings Through Week 15: Who Takes Over the Top Spot?
Daniel Kelley
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Denver Broncos
During his rookie season, Marvin Mims Jr. was a master of the small sample size. Mims averaged over 17 yards per reception last year, though he ranked outside of the top-100 wide receivers in total routes run. Despite making plays and showing flashes as a rookie, Mims struggled to get onto the field. Is more playing time on the horizon in his second season?
What Went Wrong
Despite Sean Payton and the Broncos selecting Mims at the end of the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, the talented wideout struggled to carve out a consistent role in the offense. Mims ran a route on just 40% of dropbacks on the year, while logging just 35% of the snaps. When healthy, we know that Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy were going to operate as the top two pass-catchers in Denver, but Mims couldn’t even get playing time over Brandon Johnson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey. His 7.4% target share was laughable, despite the fact that he generated a near 103 quarterback rating when targeted. Mims averaged just 15.4 routes per contest and didn’t surpass a 15% target share in any game as a rookie.
What Went Right
In a Week 2 game against the Washington Commanders, Mims showcased his tremendous downfield ability and game-breaking speed and explosiveness. He caught a 60-yard touchdown, while adding a 53-yard reception, but Mims also made plays in the return game. The high upside signs made his lack of involvement all the more head-scratching but at least Mims’ rookie season proved that he can be an impact player at the NFL level. That explosiveness should lead to Mims returning kicks once again, which can be beneficial in certain fantasy football formats (hello, Scott Fish Bowl).
Prognosis Entering 2024
I’d love to believe that Mims could be a post-hype sleeper entering his sophomore season, but given the offense he plays in, it feels unlikely. Sure, Jerry Jeudy is gone, but the Broncos brought in Troy Franklin, who can also make plays down the field, while Tim Patrick will return from injury. Denver also added a reliable veteran in Josh Reynolds. You’d love to see Mims play more snaps and run more routes this season but even if he does, his role isn’t going to be very fantasy reliable in this scheme. Last season, the Broncos targeted the running back position over 30% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. In Payton’s system, Russell Wilson, a quarterback who historically has attacked the boundaries of the field vertically, transformed into a checkdown machine. 23.3% of his passes last year were behind the line of scrimmage, while screens made up 12.1% of his dropbacks. Now enter Bo Nix, who saw 749 of his passing yards from 2023 come off screens in 2023, while 27% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage. Mims will likely continue to make some splash plays here and there but he is unlikely to emerge as a reliable fantasy player, especially in this offense.
Dynasty Outlook
Clearly, I don’t like the fit with Mims and this version of the Denver offense. So, at the moment, I’m not the highest on him in dynasty formats. He’s still just 22 years old and has that second-round pedigree, but that may not even mean all that much to the Broncos. If you play in a best ball dynasty league, Mims will certainly be more intriguing but if you still believe in the talent eventually winning out, you can probably acquire Mims for a late second-/early third-round pick.
