Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Luke Musgrave, TE, Green Bay Packers
The tight end class of 2023 was littered with potential long-term NFL-level starters, and Luke Musgrave was certainly one of them. Standing at an imposing 6-foot-6 and weighing 253 pounds, Musgrave possessed the ideal size and impressive mobility for a tight end. On the flip side, this never translated to much on-field success at Oregon State, only amassing 633 yards and 2 touchdowns receiving, in large part due to injuries. Despite these challenges, the Packers saw promise in Musgrave’s physical attributes and selected him 42nd overall in the draft, making him the highest-selected Beaver tight end since Bubba Franks in 2000.
What Went Wrong
Much like his collegiate career, the injury bug popped up for Musgrave, hindering his ability to complete the season. He played through an ankle sprain that he sustained in Week 7 but landed on IR in Week 11 with a “significant abdominal” injury that forced him to miss the next six weeks. Complicating matters, Musgrave contended with a crowded group of pass catchers, restricting him to just 46 targets throughout the season. Of particular concern was the emergence of fellow rookie Tucker Kraft, whose rise muddies the tight-end depth chart and is a direct threat to Musgraves’s long-term outlook.
What Went Right
With limited production, it is hard to hang our hats on much that went right for Musgrave in 2023. We did see him post a modest stat line for a rookie tight end, 34 receptions for 352 yards and a lone score, but this is far from exciting considering it was only good enough for 5.3 half PPR points per game and a TE31 finish. Looking past the surface, Musgrave did show an ability to stretch the seam easily, while being a fairly reliable target when called upon both promising indicators.
Prognosis Entering 2024
As we approach the 2024 season, deciphering the battle between Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave is crucial to both players’ outlooks. Kraft is battling an Arm injury which will sideline him until at least training camp, opening a huge window for Musgrave to establish himself as the lead guy.
Last year, both players combined for 86 targets, 65 receptions, 707 yards and three touchdowns — a respectable line for a single tight end. As it stands now though, both are projected to be highly involved in the passing attack placing them into purgatory among the tight-end ranks. If we can see Musgrave command significant work, he will become a weekly streamer at best, but it may be best to spare yourself the headache and look elsewhere for your top tight end in 2024.
Dynasty Outlook
Looking at Luke Musgrave’s dynasty outlook, there’s a hint of promise, but it’s still a challenging situation. With Tucker Kraft also entering his second year, neither player seems poised for a breakout, setting the stage for a tight end-by-committee approach for the foreseeable future. While this strategy may benefit the Packers, it renders both players largely irrelevant for fantasy purposes, even in dynasty leagues.
With an abundance of talent added to the tight end pool recently, there is little incentive to add the TE31 or TE32 to my roster. Depending on the cost of the move, this type of move will not push the needle in the correct direction, if anything it could hinder your roster. Musgrave will be hard to cut ties with if/when it goes south leaving you with a dreaded roster clogger.
