Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs broke out as a sophomore at UNC in 2021 with 1,335 yards and 8 touchdowns on 101 receptions. In his junior year, he continued his success with 1,029 yards and 11 touchdowns on 94 receptions, leading the ACC in receptions during both seasons. Despite these impressive numbers, Downs’ size — 5-foot-10, 180 pounds — was a concern for NFL teams, causing him to slip to the third round, where the Colts drafted him with the 79th pick.
His landing with the Colts sparked debate: Some believed he could immediately contribute significantly to their passing game, while others doubted his fantasy potential, especially given uncertainties about rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson’s consistency. This gave him an affordable cost in redraft and rookie drafts, however, his rookie year lacked little to no fantasy success.
What Went Wrong
Josh Downs had a respectable rookie year, making it challenging to pinpoint significant issues. However, his usage stood out as a concern: He only had two games with over 10 targets and was under five targets in seven games. He failed to exceed seven half-PPR points 12 times in 17 games and finished inside the top 50 wide receivers only seven times, with just two appearances in the top 24.
What Went Right
As a rookie, Downs posted 771 receiving yards and 68 receptions on 98 targets, all encouraging signs to future success. We also saw him post 11.3 yards per reception, displaying efficiency and big-play ability when targeted. His 69.4% catch percentage ranked 13th among the 43 players with 90-plus targets last season.
When it came to fantasy, we saw a fantastic four-week stretch where he displayed a high-end fantasy ceiling. In Weeks 5-8, Downs produced 55 half-PPR points and finished as the WR10 during this span, including a WR3 finish with 21 half-PPR points in Week 7.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Despite Downs’ success in his rookie year, the Colts opted to draft Adonai Mitchell in the second round this year. While Mitchell’s role doesn’t directly impact Downs’ slot position, his presence could reduce Downs’ opportunities. If Mitchell proves to be an upgrade over Alec Pierce, Downs’ consistency issues from his rookie season could become more pronounced.
Additionally, Anthony Richardson will have a full season after missing most of his rookie year due to a shoulder injury. This might lead to an unreliable passing attack, especially beyond the first read, something this offense didn’t struggle with in 2023 with Gardner Minshew under center.
Despite these factors, I would recommend considering Josh Downs if his draft value remains low in redraft leagues. There are various potential outcomes for his sophomore campaign, including becoming a viable top 36 wide receiver option available well after the top 36 are drafted.
Dynasty Outlook
Downs finds himself in a somewhat uncertain situation for the foreseeable future, but this shouldn’t be too concerning. While the Colts have committed to Michael Pittman, they’ve kept the door open for Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, or Alec Pierce to emerge as the team’s secondary option long-term. After an impressive rookie year where downs flashed immense talent, Downs appears poised to fulfill this role.
However, the addition of Mitchell should be taken seriously as it poses a potential threat to Downs’ opportunities. However, this addition has also suppressed Downs value in the trade market making him an interesting target who offers a solid ceiling, so don’t shy away from him just yet. If Anthony Richardson reaches his developmental ceiling, the Colts could evolve into an offense capable of supporting two to three weekly fantasy assets from their passing attack.
