Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Addison showcased his talent throughout college, amassing over 3,100 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns between two years at Pitt and one at USC. A significant portion of this production, including 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns, came during his remarkable 2021 Biletnikoff-winning campaign. Combining his stellar collegiate performance with an impressive showing at the combine, Addison caught the attention of the Vikings’ decision-makers, leading to his selection as the 23rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite his slender frame at 5-foot-11 and 175 pounds, Addison’s prowess as a route runner sets him apart, consistently exploiting defenders’ leverage to create ample separation and generate big plays.
The landing spot in Minnesota seemed tailor-made for Jordan Addison’s skill set. Playing behind Justin Jefferson gives him the opportunity to thrive against softer coverages and showcase his strengths. Additionally, having a veteran quarterback like Kirk Cousins provided additional stability, given Cousins’ track record of supporting multiple top-tier fantasy assets over his career. All of this created significant hype surrounding Addison in both redraft and dynasty leagues in 2023, with many believing he had the potential to emerge as the most productive rookie wide receiver.
What Went Wrong
When evaluating Jordan Addison’s rookie season, two main issues emerged: consistency and contested situations. While being second fiddle behind Justin Jefferson may have eased his transition into the NFL, it also restricted his ability to consistently deliver consistent fantasy numbers. Addison only topped 10 half-PPR points in eight games last year, just under half his games.
Addison certainly struggled in contested catch situations, catching only 9 of his 23 contested targets. A significant factor in this is his slender frame, but his technique was also lacking. Hopefully, we can see him improve this area going forward.
What Went Right
Touchdowns. Jordan Addison made an immediate impact in his rookie season, tying a rookie record by scoring 6 touchdowns in his first seven games. This remarkable scoring rate did slow up throughout the season, eventually leading to 10 touchdowns, 32% of his fantasy points. He garnered 108 targets as a rookie, a notable number, and amassed 911 receiving yards. Addison’s advanced metrics, such as 2.1 yards per route run and 3.1 air yards per route run, serve as strong indicators of future success.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Heading into this season, the quarterback situation looms as a critical factor in Jordan Addison’s success. With the Vikings parting ways with Kirk Cousins and opting for a combination of Sam Darnold and rookie first-rounder J.J. McCarthy, uncertainty surrounds the quarterback position. While Darnold appears to be the early frontrunner for the starting job, his track record raises concerns. Historically, Darnold has struggled to consistently support even one top fantasy asset, let alone two, which could pose challenges for Addison’s production.
So with Addison being second in the pecking order behind Justin Jefferson, we may see him be even more inconsistent. Additionally, he’s a prime candidate for touchdown regression given his hyper-productive scoring rate last season. Both of these factors hold significant weight in fantasy production, leading to concerns about potential disappointment for fantasy managers this year.
Dynasty Outlook
In dynasty formats, there are fewer concerns about Addison’s immediate production and value. While the quarterback situation may hinder him in 2024, the emergence of McCarthy could pave the way for Addison to become a consistent and valuable asset in the future. Additionally, Jefferson’s recent four-year contract extension keeps him in Minnesota, presenting both an opportunity and a challenge for Addison. While playing alongside Jefferson provides an advantage to play against weaker coverage, it also potentially caps Addison’s ceiling as long as Jefferson remains a fixture in the offense.
So when investing in Addison, understand that you are getting in at or near Addison’s ceiling, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Keeping your expectations in check will allow you to ride the rollercoaster of his production and benefit from it.
