Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos
While he wasn’t exactly a household name when it comes to fantasy football, Jaleel McLaughlin showed some signs during his rookie season. He really impressed head coach Sean Payton, likely earning a much larger role in a running back friendly offense in 2024.
What Went Right
McLaughlin was not an every-down running back last year. He wasn’t even close to it. And because of that, we do have to take some of his metrics with a grain of salt considering his volume was lower. However, he impressed, especially in the passing game. Among qualified running backs in 2023, McLaughlin ranked sixth in yards per route run (2.1), and his 37% target per route run rate led all players with at least 150 snaps at the position. But McLaughlin was also efficient when running the football, ranking 10th in yards per touch (5.3) and 13th in breakaway run rate (5.3%). Of course, McLaughlin didn’t see a massive workload but simply put, when he got opportunities, he impressed. There was also one game where the Broncos were without Javonte Williams. In that contest, McLaughlin played 34% of the snaps, handled 56% of the rush attempts and posted a season-high 12 touches.
What Went Wrong
McLaughlin averaged just 6.3 touches per game this past season and didn’t see more than 10 touches in any game where the Broncos backfield was at full strength. He also didn’t play 50% of the snaps in any game and that was during a season where Javonte Williams certainly wasn’t himself coming off a serious ACL tear. McLaughlin also only had 13 red zone touches, and with 221-pound Audric Estimé now in town, it seems unlikely that the sophomore will see a significant role when the Broncos are in close.
Prognosis Entering 2024
McLaughlin is a terrific sleeper candidate for a few reasons.
For starters, Payton’s offense is one of the best in the league when it comes to presenting running backs with fantasy points. Why? Because it presents running backs with targets and receptions. This past season, both Javonte Williams (12.2%) and Samaje Perine (11.8%) ranked among the top-15 running backs in target share. And as a team, the Broncos targeted the position 31.4% of the time, a top-five rate in football. Perine’s role last year was quietly fantasy friendly. He played 93% of the team’s snaps in the two-minute drill, as well as 67% on long down and distances. His 11 receptions during the two-minute drill trailed only Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall, while his 14 third-down receptions ranked ninth. That usage helped Perine average 1.22 fantasy points per touch (sixth). But what if McLaughlin, after impressing as a rookie, takes on at least Perine’s role in 2024? The Broncos drafted Estimé, which could make Perine a potential cut candidate this offseason. If McLaughlin gets most of the third-down and two-minute work for a team that is likely to be chasing points quite a bit, the receptions will absolutely be there, especially in this scheme.
Payton’s offenses have always heavily relied on the screen game, and that was no different in 2023. 23.3% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts went behind the line of scrimmage last year (fourth), and he posted a 12.1% screen dropback rate. Expect that top continue this season, especially if Bo Nix starts at quarterback. 749 of his passing yards from 2023 came off screens in 2023, while 27% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage. And Payton already liked to utilize McLaughlin in the screen game this past season, as he ranked sixth in receptions (17) and ninth in targets (18) off screens as a rookie.
Dynasty Outlook
At 5-foot-8 and 187 pounds, McLaughlin is unlikely to ever become someone who averages 15-plus touches per game. And he’s also unlikely to ever become a top-25 fantasy running back. However, he is still one of my favorite trade candidates, especially in PPR formats. Entering his second season, McLaughlin is still just 23 years old and if he sees the usage bump I expect in 2024, he’ll be a lot more difficult to acquire after this season. He is the perfect player to add depth and some PPR upside to your bench, and now is the time to add him to your roster.
