Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Emari Demercado, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Even after his TCU Horned Frogs made a surprising run to the college football championship game, Demercado was an NFL afterthought. He spent the bulk of his college career as a second or third running back behind mid-round prospects Zach Evans and Kendre Miller. But Demercado made the most of a tenuous opportunity as an undrafted Cardinals free agent. He beat out veteran Corey Clement to make the team’s initial 53-man roster. And after his teammate James Conner landed on injured reserve with a knee injury, Demercado started two games in late October.
What Went Wrong
Demercado may have enjoyed another game and a half as a starter as Conner missed a full month with his injury. But the rookie back suffered his own toe injury in Week 8 and was forced to sit the Browns game in Week 9 that was Conner’s final absence. He had another high point with an explosive touchdown run in Week 15. But Demercado did not tally five carries in a game in the second half of his rookie season, yielding work to Conner and to mid-year waiver addition Michael Carter.
What Went Right
Demercado likely forced a few scout double-takes with his previously mentioned 49-yard touchdown run. The rookie fell from draft consideration because of perceived slow footwork and a lack of explosiveness. But he teased some untapped potential in those areas, fighting through heavy traffic and bursting past several 49ers defenders into the open field.
Demercado finished his rookie season with an exemplary 4.9 yards per attempt. And while that breakaway touchdown run did yeoman’s work for that average, Demercado did not raise all the same red regression flags as his rookie classmate De’Von Achane. Demercado gained a moderate 23.6% of his yards on explosive carries, less than half of Achane’s outlier 54.3% rate.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Demercado’s small sample of rookie touches still threatens regression in other ways. The most dangerous is likely with his schedule. Because of the coincidental timing of the rises and falls of his workloads, Demercado dodged that fearsome Browns run defense and racked up 23 of his 58 carries against bottom-10 Seahawks and Bengals run defenses. In net, Demercado enjoyed the fourth-biggest rushing efficiency schedule boost at his position.
| Running Backs with the Biggest Run Defense Boosts, 2023 | ||||
| Player | Atts | VOA | DVOA | Diff |
| Zamir White | 104 | -1.7% | -11.7% | -10.0% |
| De’Von Achane | 103 | 59.1% | 49.1% | -10.0% |
| Kyren Williams | 228 | 27.5% | 19.1% | -8.4% |
| Emari Demercado | 58 | 11.2% | 3.0% | -8.1% |
| Ty Chandler | 102 | 9.9% | 2.4% | -7.5% |
| Kenneth Walker | 219 | -0.8% | -8.2% | -7.4% |
| Rico Dowdle | 89 | 5.4% | -1.7% | -7.1% |
| Cam Akers | 60 | -22.7% | -28.9% | -6.3% |
| Devin Singletary | 216 | -1.8% | -6.2% | -4.4% |
| Brian Robinson | 178 | -1.1% | -4.8% | -3.6% |
| Minimum 50 attempts | ||||
The Cardinals showed their skepticism of Demercado’s statistical flattery in their Trey Benson draft pick. His third-round draft status spurs some doubt of his inevitability, but Benson showed tremendous athleticism for his size with a 4.39-second 40 time at 216 pounds. He looks like a natural heir to James Conner’s current early-down role with the team. And that line of succession seems likely to leave Demercado as a 2024 backup barring a run of injuries.
Dynasty Outlook
Demercado has overachieved to make the Cardinals and to produce his 4.9 yards per attempt. And it isn’t unthinkable that he could continue to defy expectations. James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay and Arian Foster went undrafted in recent years and still contributed standout fantasy seasons. But Demercado faces stiff competition in his teammates Conner and Benson. And after five years at TCU and another at a junior college, Demercado is an older sophomore at 25 years old. His dynasty speculation requires a very deep league.
