Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers
Dontayvion Wicks emerged as a polarizing draft prospect, highlighted by a standout sophomore season where he set a school record with over 1,203 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. However, his production dipped significantly in 2022, managing just 403 yards and 2 touchdowns in 8 games. At the NFL Scouting Combine, his performance was modest, leading to a fifth-round selection by the Packers with the 159th overall pick.
Joining an already crowded receiver room as a rookie, Wicks was largely overlooked on draft day. A smart decision by many managers as he finished the season as WR57 with 100.3 points in half-PPR formats. Although he occasionally delivered as a waiver-wire addition with five top-36 finishes, these performances often occurred on fantasy benches rather than in starting lineups due to significant inconsistency.
What Went Wrong
When analyzing Dontayvion Wicks’ rookie year, the main issue that stood out, similar to many fantasy assets in the Packers’ offense, is volume. Wicks never received more than 7 targets in a game and had 11 games with 5 or fewer targets. This limited usage hinders the upside Wicks can provide as a fantasy asset. Aside from this, he missed two games due to injury, but this isn’t a major concern going forward.
What Went Right
Plenty.
Wicks displayed limited usage but remarkable efficiency. He caught over 67% of his targets, averaging 14.3 yards per catch for a total of 581 yards in his rookie season. This efficiency translated to an impressive 1.94 yards per route run according to PFF, ranking sixth among rookie wide receivers. Despite only receiving 58 targets, he found the end zone 4 times, with three touchdowns coming in the final three weeks. Giving me some skepticism about whether he can consistently maintain this touchdown production. However, his 8 red zone targets provide optimism for potential positive regression in the touchdown department.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Yes, Dontayvion Wicks had an impressive rookie season for a fifth-rounder, but we need to temper our optimism. Christian Watson missing eight games created opportunities in the receiver room, yet the offense continued to spread the ball around effectively. Seven players received over 40 targets, with four surpassing 50 and two exceeding 90. This formula worked well for the Packers, and I don’t see this changing in 2024.
As a result, Wicks is severely limited as a fantasy asset, likely ranking as the fifth option in the passing attack at best. A repeat of his rookie season seems probable. This inconsistency is something I’m avoiding in 2024; I prefer taking a chance on another team’s WR3 rather than Wicks.
Dynasty Outlook
The long-term outlook for Wicks appears bleak. With all four top receivers and two tight ends on their rookie deals and aged 25 or younger, it’s unlikely Wicks’ situation will improve in the coming years. Even if Wicks surpasses Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs this season, optimism remains slim, as the most productive Packers receiver last year finished only as WR23 in half-PPR scoring.
Wicks’ situation seems more like roster clogger territory. Despite this, I’m not rushing to drop him or add him, but if someone is interested, I’m looking to capitalize on any window of optimism.
