Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
DeMario Douglas, WR, New England Patriots
DeMario Douglas was a productive player at Liberty producing over 2100 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns over his four years. When it came to draft day, his smaller stature (5-foot-8, 165 pounds) resulted in a slide to Round 6, where New England took a shot on him at pick 210. Stepping into a positive situation in New England largely due to a lack of competition in a limited receiver room. This created some late-round buzz in many redraft leagues, but he failed to materialize into a consistent asset in 2023.
What Went Wrong
A total offensive collapse.
DeMario Douglas failed to light up the fantasy streets, largely due to circumstances beyond his control. The Patriots struggled offensively, ranking 30th in yards per game (276.2), 28th in passing yards per game (180.5) and dead last in points per game (13.9) In addition, Mac Jones was very pedestrian, 14th worst when it came to on-target throw percentage (74.9%) and bad throw percentage (15.9%). This is a hard environment to succeed in.
To compound things, Douglas also dealt with a midseason concussion that sidelined him for a few weeks. His inability to score touchdowns on any of his 49 receptions further dampened his fantasy output. All these factors combined made it exceedingly difficult for Douglas to shine in year one, ultimately finishing as the WR68 in half-PPR with 82.7 points.
What Went Right
Douglas impressed with 79 targets, a notable achievement for a rookie. Of these, he only managed to secure 49 receptions, but he led the team with 561 receiving yards. His average of 11.4 yards per reception ranked second on the team (min. 50 targets). Douglas showcased versatility by contributing to the run game with 8 carries for 41 yards, highlighting his explosive playmaking ability with the ball in his hands.
Prognosis Entering 2024
When we start to forecast what 2024 may look like for DeMario Douglas, we have to account for the messy situation he is now in. DeVante Parker left, but the Patriots signed K.J. Osborn and drafted Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, so the competition has intensified. These additions join an already crowded group including Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Reagor.
Given this scenario, Douglas’ fantasy potential appears somewhat limited, especially considering his previous struggles finding the endzone. While not all the new additions will immediately impact Douglas, his ceiling seems limited. It’s reasonable to expect him to be a flex option, contingent on weekly matchups, at best in 2024.
Dynasty Outlook
There is not much promise for DeMario Douglas from a dynasty perspective. Despite his moderate success in his rookie year, the Patriots’ aggressive moves to bolster their receiving corps in the offseason raise concerns. In what is a pigeonholed role, Douglas’s fantasy success relies on a hyper-efficient per-target yardage rate, along with a high-volume passing attack to reach viable numbers, something the Patriots lack for the foreseeable future. For this reason, Douglas is an asset you can afford to pass up to spare yourself the hassle of deciphering when and when not to start him.
