Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Every offseason, a new crop of late-round running backs get the coach-speak hype train bump and are picked as a trendy sleeper when, in reality, they’re fighting for a roster spot. Chris Rodriguez was one of the 2023 backs to fit this profile, drafted in the sixth round by a Washington Commanders team that already had Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson on the roster.
What Went Wrong
Already buried on the depth chart, an early-season illness caused Rodriguez to miss Weeks 4 and 5, and he logged just 12 offensive snaps through the first six games of his NFL career. He only saw double-digit snaps in four games, all of which Gibson or Robinson missed or left early due to injury. His usage in the passing game was non-existent, catching two passes on two targets for 12 yards. His season was cut short after being placed on IR due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 16.
What Went Right
He had a respectable 4.8 yards per carry on 51 attempts and scored two touchdowns in a favorable matchup against the Jets in Week 16 before leaving with said ankle injury. That about sums it up.
Prognosis Entering 2024
It’s impossible to gauge what kind of usage Rodriguez may see in 2024. Any hopes of him moving up the depth chart with Gibson leaving in free agency were dashed with the Commanders’ signing of Austin Ekeler. It will likely take an injury to one of Robinson or Ekeler for Rodriguez to see any sort of significant usage, and he didn’t do much with the limited touches he saw last year. With Robinson out in Weeks 15 and 16, Rodriguez averaged 46.5 yards on 10 rushes (the only games he saw double-digit attempts). When Gibson missed Week 11, Rodriguez rushed six times for 43 yards on a grand total of 16 snaps.
Dynasty Outlook
There’s little to be optimistic about Rodriguez’s dynasty outlook. He had a productive college career in five seasons at Kentucky, rushing for 3,642 yards, but had fewer catches (20) than rushing touchdowns (33). Already a slim chance at any long-term dynasty value as a sixth-round pick, the coaching staff that drafted him was also fired. Rodriguez is worthy of a pickup if he’s on the waiver wire as an end-of-bench stash. But don’t make room for him.
