Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season and turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
You’ll often hear that running backs don’t matter. Taken eighth overall as the first running back of the board in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bijan Robinson is the exception to the rule. “Generational talent” is thrown around way too willy-nilly in the fantasy community, but Bijan is just that. He’s capable of becoming the next great running back in the Christian McCaffrey, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Charles mold who can carry your team to a championship by himself.
What Went Wrong
Arthur Smith.
Just reading the name of the former Falcons head coach is enough to make any Bijan fantasy manager’s blood boil. Smith’s befuddling refusal to lean on Robinson was a painful rerun of the same show we’ve watched over and over in Atlanta the past three seasons. Despite the top-10 draft capital spent on Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Smith insisted on using lesser talents like a spiteful toddler trying to prove a point. Tyler Allgeier had just 28 fewer carries than Robinson and had more red-zone rushing attempts (36 to 23). Cordarrelle Patterson, who has been in the NFL since Bijan was 11 years old, had nearly half the red-zone attempts as Robinson (10).
What Went Right
It’s a tired, overused cliche, but Bijan is a home run waiting to happen any time he touches the ball. He only fell 24 yards short of 1,000 rushing yards despite seeing just 214 carries, fewer than Devin Singletary (who started 10 games for the Texans). The one thing Herman Munster Arthur Smith did right with Robinson was use him in the passing game. Bijan had the third-most targets at the position with 86, which equated to 58 receptions (sixth most for RBs), 487 receiving yards (fourth most for RBs) and 4 receiving touchdowns (T-third most for RBs).
Prognosis Entering 2024
“Get the ball to Bijan as much as you can, in as many ideal situations as you possibly can,” – Current Falcons head coach Raheem Morris.
Granted, it’s offseason coachspeak, so Morris could be blowing smoke. But if he’s not, watch out. Robinson is among a handful of players with the talent to unseat Christian McCaffrey as the RB1 overall. If Morris and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson give Bijan the usage their former running back Kyren Williams saw last season (228 carries, 48 targets in 12 games), Robinson has the talent to put up a historic fantasy season. I’m not saying that will happen, or even that it’s likely, but he’s one of the few with the potential.
Dynasty Outlook
I would trade literally any running back for him straight up. He’s my RB1 in dynasty, and I’m doing whatever it takes to get him on one of my rosters. I rarely advocate “buying high” on a player, but I’m willing to do so for Bijan. As I wrote in my “Dynasty Moves to Make” article about Bijan, he won’t be cheap, but he’ll never be cheaper.
