NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We are exactly one month away from the 2024 NFL Draft, which is a glorious time for sports bettors. The major sportsbooks have been gradually posting draft props over the last two months, but there will be a multitude of increased options as the calendar turns to April.
I enjoyed a lucrative 2023 NFL Draft betting season, hitting on 61.1% of my picks, including under 2.5 tight ends selected, Paris Johnson draft position under 9.5, and Joey Porter draft position over 16.5. With NFL teams getting more secretive with their picks, there is huge value available in the market to reward extensive research. Which information is actionable? Which information is just noise?
Here are my early bets for the 2024 NFL Draft.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
2024 NFL Draft Props and Best Bets
Tennessee Titans Position of 1st Drafted Player: Offensive Lineman
My value: -130
Current value: -300
The Titans offensive line allowed the third-most sacks in the NFL and just released OT Andre Dillard. Tennessee needs to pair an elite left tackle with guard Peter Skoronski, who they drafted with the No. 11 pick last season. Protecting second-year quarterback Will Levis is the clear-cut priority.
Dallas Cowboys Position of 1st Drafted Player: Offensive Lineman
My value: -135
Current value: -150
The Cowboys lost OT Tyron Smith to the Jets, which prioritizes offensive line with the 24th overall pick. Dallas held formal meetings with eight different offensive linemen, making it hard to envision anything other than fortifying protection for franchise quarterback Dak Prescott. This is worth another unit at -150.
Green Bay Packers Position of 1st Drafted Player: Offensive Lineman
My value: +175
Current value: -120
I believed Green Bay would release veteran OT David Bakhtiari and grabbed this bet at +175 March 9. Two days later, the Packers followed through on that rumor, citing a failed physical. Bakhtiari played just 13 games the past three seasons, and Green Bay needs protection for franchise quarterback Jordan Love. The Packers signed safety Xavier McKinney and running back Josh Jacobs and re-signed cornerback Keisean Nixon. All signs point to the offensive line in Green Bay.
Number of Offensive Linemen Taken in Round 1 Over 9.5
My value: +130
Current value: +130
The most offensive tackles taken in Round 1 of any NFL Draft is seven in 2008. Three other years saw six tackles drafted. But 2024 sets up to be a record, with most mock drafts projecting at least nine offensive linemen taken. We are just two years removed from three offensive linemen getting selected in the top nine picks of the 2022 NFL Draft. This is a good number at 9.5, meaning I need 10 players drafted to hit the over. However, I project nine as the floor, making the +130 too attractive given the lack of Round 1 value at the running back and safety positions.
Number of Quarterback Taken in Round 1 Over 4.5
My value: -200
Current value: -230
I grabbed this line as soon as it was posted, as it is seemingly an automatic. There is a strong probability that Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy all go off the board in the top-10 picks. That leaves 22 picks for just one more quarterback, and both Michael Penix and Bo Nix are possibilities in Round 1. With Denver (No. 12), Las Vegas (No. 13) and possibly Seattle (No. 16) all looking for a quarterback, getting that fifth QB looks like easy money.
Selection at Pick No. 2: J.J. McCarthy
My value: +2200
Current value: +2500
After watching the misleading information with C.J. Stroud last draft, I thought it was worth a sprinkle on J.J. McCarthy at the No. 2 pick. So much of handicapping the draft is tethered to rumor accuracy, but I believe the noise surrounding McCarthy. His leadership ability and football IQ are unquestioned, and McCarthy showed impressive arm strength in recent workouts. It’s a longshot, but I think there are enough questions about Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels that McCarthy could go much earlier than expected.
