Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Finding that breakout player who can make your season is one of the keys to any successful fantasy football venture. Getting players who return draft-day value at every pick is a great way to have a fine season and maybe even contend for the fantasy playoffs. But to win your title, especially in the big, high-stakes leagues, you need to take the big swings that can pay off big dividends.
Early in the draft, maybe that means taking a stab at someone who can finish first overall. Super late, maybe that means taking a chance on someone who can break out. But in the middle rounds, you’re looking for someone who can outproduce their draft slot. There are a number of ways that can happen – new role, career development, etc. One thing to look for is a player who has obvious marks against him that help explain why the drafting community is letting him fall. Perhaps the drafters have overstated the impact of the black marks, so the player’s value actually falls below where it should. With that in mind, let’s get to this year’s league winners at each position.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
It’s been a while since Deshaun Watson has been relevant in fantasy football. Last time was 2020 with the Texans. So why am I interested in him this year? I’m going to give him a pass for the last three years due to suspension/off-field distractions/injury and just being rusty. This is the first offseason in a while where he should be focused on just football, and I like the upgrades on offense around him. The Browns acquired Jerry Jeudy, who I think will be looking for a fresh start and will be motivated to prove to people that he’s not a bust. The Browns still have Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore to go along with David Njoku at tight end. But I think the key to resurrecting Watson’s career is going to be their new offensive coordinator, Ken Dorsey. Dorsey was a big part of developing Josh Allen and turning him into a fantasy football monster while he was in Buffalo as a quarterback coach and OC. Allen and Watson are not on the same level, and I’m not predicting that kind of breakout, but I do think a 2022 Geno Smith type of year could be in store for Watson. I think 4,300 passing yards with 30 TDs and 400 rushing yards are within the range of outcomes. He’s a top-six QB you can get for free in drafts.
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