2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: ADP Rumblings (8/21)

Just one preseason week (and another week with no games) stands between us and the 2024 NFL season. Fantasy managers are gearing up and preparing for drafts.

Now is one of the most fun times of the offseason. Teams have built up their rosters through free agency and the draft and are starting to figure out how the different pieces of the team fit. There are plenty of news and game clips to help us envision roles for the players we will be drafting in fantasy football.

This article will focus on the biggest movers at each position since the first week of preseason games. Understanding the trends of how players are moving in fantasy drafts can be used to make sure you secure the players that will win your league. Check out this week’s ADP rumblings below.

Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (8/21)

Biggest Riser

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 188.7 (-26.0), QB26

Unsurprisingly, Sam Darnold is the biggest riser after the news J.J. McCarthy will miss his entire rookie season after having a meniscus repair. Before the injury, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that McCarthy would eventually see time this season, which kept both his and Darnold’s ADPs suppressed.

Now that that option is off the table, Darnold is rising rapidly in drafts. The veteran quarterback has climbed over two rounds of ADP since the first preseason game kicked off.

Many fantasy managers are apprehensive about trusting Darnold after seasons of subpar play. But there have been flashes of a competent quarterback in there at times. In 2022 with the Panthers, Darnold threw for 1,143 yards and seven touchdowns with three interceptions during a six-game sample size. In his lone start with the 49ers in 2023, he threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns with just one interception.

This is also an offense that is able to generate offense from the quarterback position. Both Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens were able to have fantasy viable stretches in relief of Kirk Cousins in 2023, but neither was able to sustain it. Darnold is an experienced quarterback (56 career starts) with plenty of talent who will be throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (and possibly T.J. Hockenson at some point).

Drafting Darnold certainly won’t make fantasy managers feel good, but now that we know he is a locked-in starter (presumably for 17 games), he does have late-round fantasy appeal in an offense that generates big plays out of the quarterback position.

Biggest Faller

MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers

ADP: 143.2 (+22.1), RB51

The MarShawn Lloyd fall continues after the hamstring injury he suffered in his first preseason game. Lloyd has dropped 22 picks since the preseason kicked off due to the regular stream of injuries he’s dealt with since being drafted.

The lack of time for Lloyd in training camp means the team is far more likely to lean on their veteran running backs to start the season. Josh Jacobs was paid well this offseason to function as the lead back and has been brought up frequently by coaches thanks to his versatile skill set. AJ Dillon has struggled to produce on bigger workloads throughout his career, but he is familiar with the offense and the team brought him back this offseason.

Preseason is crucial for rookies to show what they can do and earn their role in the regular season. Unfortunately for Lloyd, his first offseason has largely been a wash. There is a chance he can get healthy and contribute in 2024, but it is far less certain than when he was drafted out of USC.

Quarterback

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

ADP: 105.5 (-9.7), QB12

Caleb Williams has delivered highlight-worthy plays through his first two preseason games, flashing the arm talent and creativity that was evident throughout his college film. There are still plenty of throws that show he’s a rookie (based on placement and timing), but his ability to generate explosives in the passing game has shown up frequently.

Williams also has provided some rushing throughout his first two weeks, including a rushing touchdown. Fantasy managers are starting to see that his talent is real and will translate to the NFL game (albeit against backups). The frequency of social media highlights is causing his ADP to creep up, moving him up nearly a round since preseason games began.

There are certainly areas to clean up. Williams was off on his first two drives against the Bengals in the preseason before a big final drive salvaged the day. He’s also completing only 50% of his passes on a 20-attempt sample size. But this is still a rookie who has shown that his unique skill set and playmaking ability will translate to the NFL. And while there will be bumps in the road, his athleticism gives him a rushing floor that will translate to fantasy points.

Caleb Williams is being drafted as the QB12 in fantasy drafts, which feels realistic (and possibly low) given what we have seen in the preseason. He will continue to grow and has a multitude of pass-catching weapons at his disposal to sustain his passing production.

Running Back

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP: 202.5 (-8.5), RB62

Tank Bigsby’s rookie season was an undeniable disaster. Bigsby played in 17 games but produced only 50 carries for 132 yards and two touchdowns while adding just one reception on four targets for six yards. A lack of tough running and turnover issues (Bigsby had two fumbles on 50 carries) kept him mostly off the field and buried behind veterans.

By all accounts, Bigsby has been having a much better training camp and has put himself in a position to siphon some work from Travis Etienne in 2024.

The Jaguars ultimately would like Etienne to lead the backfield while getting help from other options to keep him fresh and healthy throughout the season. In a perfect world, Bigsby would be that guy after the team drafted him in the third round of the 2023 draft. Through two preseason games, Bigsby has totaled 13 carries for 65 yards. He has gone from averaging 2.6 yards per carry last season to 5.0 before his second year.

Time will tell if this good play will result in different results on Sunday. But at the very least, it seems that Bigsby will have earned some sort of role to start his second season and could absorb more work if that is successful. He should be on the radar for fantasy managers as a late-round flier.

Wide Receiver

Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos

ADP: 210.3 (+18.0), WR89

Troy Franklin was one player that the social media scouts and the NFL scouts disagreed on. Many loved Franklin’s ability to generate explosive plays during his final season at Oregon after the receiver posted 81 receptions for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns. Concerns about route running and speed popped up after the NFL combine, dropping Franklin to a fourth-round pick.

Still, there was hope for fantasy managers since the team that drafted him (Denver) was also the landing spot for Franklin’s collegiate quarterback.

However, Franklin has struggled to see reps throughout training camp and is widely expected to be a developmental prospect, even in a wide-open depth chart. It is hard to imagine a scenario (short of the entire receiver room getting injured at once) where Franklin has a consistent role to produce fantasy points in his first year.

An important skill to have in fantasy is the ability to parse through information to identify players that have value. Fantasy managers are reading the tea leaves with Franklin according to his ADP plummeting the last two weeks. It is hard to trust him, even in the final round of fantasy drafts, given what we know about his lack of plays in the preseason.

Tight End

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

ADP: 94.7 (-1.8) TE10

Brock Bowers wasn’t just the best tight end in the 2024 draft class, but he was in the conversation for being one of the top players in the entire class. In three years at Georgia, Bowers caught 175 passes for 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns. He was on pace to surpass his career-best totals in his final season before suffering an ankle injury that limited him to 10 games.

Bowers had a less-than-ideal landing spot in the draft when he was selected by the Raiders. Las Vegas drafted another tight end in the second round of the 2023 draft (Michael Mayer) and has an offense helmed by Gardner Minshew. He also has legitimate target competition in Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.

The preseason usage for Bowers has been encouraging. So far, the Raiders have opted to use Mayer as the inline tight end while moving Bowers all over the formation. He’s even taken snaps in the backfield, showing his versatility as a weapon.

Bowers has been firmly entrenched as the TE10 in drafts for most of the offseason, which seems like a lofty price. However, if he’s the weapon we believe he is (and can handle touches from all sorts of positions on the field) then he should have the volume to pay off (or exceed) that ADP.