Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are in the midst of the final dead period of the 2024 NFL offseason. Teams have wrapped up their OTAs and most of the significant player movement has already happened in free agency. Training camps are roughly four weeks away, which means there won’t be much news to massively sway ADP in the coming weeks.
That said, this is the perfect time to take a step back and dig into the players that will be valuable from a fantasy perspective. Plenty of value can be mined in fantasy by taking an objective approach and looking at where players are going relative to their roles. There is even more value in being able to identify the players and teams poised to take a step forward or back next season.
The ADP rumblings article will become a weekly fixture at FTN Fantasy now that we have hit July. Over time it will break down the different movements at each position throughout the month leading up to training camps. For today’s edition, we will look at the best values at each position now that the NFL season is just around the corner.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (7/3)
Quarterback
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 89.1, QB8
Having a mobile quarterback is the cheat code for fantasy football, but pocket passers can still post strong performances (typically at a discount). One player that is emerging as a discount in 2024 is Joe Burrow.
Last year was a rough one for Burrow. He started the season with a calf injury that limited him to start the season. Through Week 4, Burrow averaged a 57.6% completion percentage and threw for 728 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Burrow was the QB34 in fantasy points per game (8.4) and behind names like Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young.
However, Week 5 served as a turning point for Burrow’s health. From Week 5 to Week 11, Burrow was seemingly back to his normal self. His completion percentage jumped up to 73.3%. He threw for 1,581 yards and 13 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Burrow climbed to QB8 in fantasy points per game (20), tied with Justin Fields and just behind C.J. Stroud (20.4 PPG) and Brock Purdy (20.1).
Unfortunately, Burrow suffered the thumb injury that ended his season in Week 11.
For a pocket passer to finish highly in fantasy football, they have to be efficient and have to throw for touchdowns. We have seen a healthy Joe Burrow do both. In 2021 and 2022, Burrow averaged a 69.3% completion rate on 563 pass attempts. In those seasons, he averaged 4,543 passing yards and 34.5 touchdowns (6.1% touchdown rate) with 13 interceptions. He also finished as the QB10 in fantasy scoring in 2021 (20.5 points per game) and the QB4 in 2022 (21.7 PPG).
Burrow will enter 2023 healthy with a solid offensive line, his top two receiving weapons (Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) and additions to the passing attack in Mike Gesicki and Jermaine Burton. The QB8 may seem like a lofty price for a pocket passer, but he’s going over 20 picks past C.J. Stroud in just as explosive of an offense.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 171.7, QB23
Geno Smith disappointed many in fantasy in 2023, failing to reach the heights he hit during his excellent 2022 season. In 2022, Smith completed 69.8% of his passes for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns with 11 interceptions, which led to a QB10 finish in fantasy points per game (18.5) and a top-five finish in total points (314.9).
Smith followed up that performance with a 64.7% completion percentage, 3,624 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. That dropped him to the QB25 in points per game (15.7) and the QB19 in total points (235.3). Smith had more weapons at his disposal but struggled in an archaic passing offense behind an offensive line that was missing its tackles throughout the season. It also didn’t help that his interior offensive line had never been good.
The veteran quarterback is back under center for the Seahawks in 2024 with the same excellent weapons at his disposal. The team will hope that their offensive line can stay healthy but upgrade the unit to help. The team added left guard Laken Tomlinson in free agency and drafted Christian Haynes to compete with second-year guard Anthony Bradford at right guard.
The biggest improvement should be the upgrade in offense. Seattle acquired former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. The Huskies led college football in passing yards (4,218) and had back-to-back seasons with an average of 300 or more passing yards per game. Grubb has shown the ability to design an offense that can fully utilize numerous receiving options.
The Seahawks should be a better offense in 2024, which should give Smith a chance to outperform his ADP. Even if he doesn’t, he is still a value as the QB23.
Running Back
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 64.3, RB15
Rachaad White was the mid-round option to target in 2023, finishing the summer as the RB29 in fantasy drafts but finishing as the RB10 in fantasy points per game (15.8). White finished the season with 272 carries for 990 yards and six touchdowns while adding 64 receptions on 70 targets for 549 yards and three receiving touchdowns.
White sustained his production through a steady diet of receptions but struggled with efficiency as a runner. White averaged just 3.6 yards per carry behind a bad offensive line that struggled on the interior. Tampa Bay signed left guard Ben Bredeson and Sua Opeta in free agency to compete for the left guard spot and drafted Duke’s Graham Barton at center. This unit should be better on the interior next season, which should open up running lanes for White.
The addition of Bucky Irving could lead to a loss of work for White, but he should by and large perform as the lead back (and handle most of the touches) once again in 2024. Assuming White commands the backfield again in 2024, then his RB15 ADP is far too low for one of the few true three-down backs in the NFL.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 140.4, RB39
Jerome Ford was solid in 2023 after Nick Chubb was lost for the season with a devastating knee injury in Week 2. Ford handled 204 carries for 813 yards and four touchdowns and 44 receptions (on 63 targets) for 319 yards and five receiving scores. Ford finished the season as the RB25 in PPR points per game (12.4) and was a top-16 back in total fantasy points (211.2 points).
Chubb said at OTAs that he nor the Browns have a timeline for his return to football, which means we should see a steady diet of Jerome Ford to start the season. The Browns offensive line is healthy once again (after suffering numerous injuries at tackle) and Deshaun Watson is back under center in an upgraded passing attack. When Chubb returns, it is unlikely that he will return to the same workload he’s had throughout his career. Not only will Ford have early season appeal, but he should have consistent value throughout the season.
The Browns didn’t add any significant competition this offseason, signing Nyheim Hines and D’Onta Foreman to upgrade their depth in the backfield.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
ADP: 90.4, WR49
Understandably, fantasy managers have little to no interest in the Denver Broncos offense for fantasy purposes. However, that has created an interesting opportunity to add a target earner at wide receiver for an extremely reasonable price.
Courtland Sutton’s fantasy finish in 2023 (11.9 PPG, WR39) was his best finish since the 2019 season. Sutton saw a modest workload (90 targets, 59 receptions and 772 receiving yards), but was able to provide fantasy value due to his 10 receiving touchdowns, which was nearly double his career total to that point (14). Sutton now has three consecutive seasons with at least 58 receptions and 700 receiving yards. He’s also beaten his current ADP of WR49 in each of the last three years.
The lack of excitement around the Broncos offense is twofold, fantasy managers expect this to be a run-centric offense with Sean Payton as the head coach and people aren’t excited that the team drafted 2024 first-round pick Bo Nix to helm the offense.
Even if the Broncos’ offense skews toward the run in 2024, somebody will need to catch the football. Denver was a bottom-10 offense in pass rate over expected last year (-3.6%, 25th), but still attempted nearly 500 passes. Sutton led the team in targets (90), with Jerry Jeudy just behind him (87). Jeudy is no longer with the team, leaving Sutton to compete for targets with Marvin Mims Jr. (33 targets in 2023), a fourth-round rookie (Troy Franklin) and the backfield for targets from a rookie quarterback. Of those options, Sutton represents the best profile to see targets in the red zone as well.
Bo Nix wasn’t viewed by many as a first-round quarterback due to his early struggles at Auburn and heavy reliance on the screen passing game at Oregon. Nix still deserves some respect as a passer for completing 74.6% of his passes for 8,101 yards and 74 touchdowns with just 10 interceptions during his two seasons in Eugene.
If Nix is better than we expect him to be, then Sutton is poised to have a strong season once again in 2024. However, even if Nix struggles, investing in Sutton as the WR49 is unlikely to tank your team, making him an excellent choice in the 7th or 8th round in fantasy drafts.
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants
ADP: 166.4, WR75
The Giants invested a top-10 pick in the 2024 draft to bolster their wide receiver room, adding LSU’s Malik Nabers to the team. Nabers will undoubtedly command the highest target share in this offense due to his fantastic route-running ability and game-breaking speed. However, fantasy managers need to invest in a third-round pick to draft Nabers. That is where the value lies in this offense.
Wan’Dale Robinson is the next pass catcher who comes off the board for the Giants as the WR75 with an ADP of 166.4. When healthy, we have seen Robinson consistently earn targets within this offense. He has at least five targets and four receptions in 12 of 21 career games. He has six games with at least 50 receiving yards, which is a feat considering the lack of talent on the Giants and the quarterback play last season.
If healthy, Nabers will certainly finish the 2024 season as the top target earner in the offense. However, fantasy managers are overlooking the ability of Wan’Dale Robinson to earn targets as a complementary piece of this offense. Robinson should have a strong season as the secondary option on this team and could far surpass his WR75 ADP in a revamped Giants offense.
Tight End
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 78.4, TE8
Tight ends are going later in fantasy drafts this season after Travis Kelce was a first-round pick for the last few years. Fantasy managers have also seemingly identified the top tier at the tight end position, with six tight ends coming off the board between pick 35 and pick 60 in fantasy drafts. However, arguably one of the best tight ends in 2023 is available after that run: Jacksonville’s Evan Engram.
The veteran tight end had an excellent 2023 season, finishing with 143 targets, 114 receptions, 963 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Engram was the TE4 in fantasy points per game (13.5) and the TE2 in total points (230.3) thanks to his ridiculous volume. Engram reached a top-end production outcome thanks to volume and could have been even better had the team designed more touches for him in the red zone. Engram had just nine targets inside the 20, well behind Calvin Ridley (25) and tied with Zay Jones (9).
Both Jones and Ridley are with new teams in 2024, which opens up an opportunity for Engram to score more fantasy points. Sure, the Jaguars addressed the openings at receiver with a free agent (Gabe Davis) and a first-round pick (Brian Thomas Jr.), but Engram should still see a portion of Ridley’s work in the passing attack. Engram may not hit 143 targets again next season but can still score more fantasy points with more luck in the red zone.
Drafting Engram as the TE8 in fantasy drafts provides fantasy managers with a high-floor option at the tight end position that has a clearly defined role in an offense that has frequently produced top-10 fantasy seasons. He’s an excellent value and allows fantasy managers to load up on other positions in the first six rounds before addressing the position.
