Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Training camps are starting across the NFL, so we are beginning to see news breaks and social media highlights of players ahead of the 2024 season. We will begin to see big swings in fantasy football ADP during individual drafts, but it may take a bit longer for ADP to catch up.
As always, we will be tracking both big and small movements and identifying emerging value in fantasy drafts as the offseason continues forward. Check out this week’s ADP rumblings below.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (7/24)
Biggest Riser
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 128.7 (-13.7), RB40
Nick Chubb’s ADP has undoubtedly spiked after the video of him squatting the equivalent of a third-grade class hit the internet over the last week. Chubb’s ADP has jumped over a full round. However, despite the impressive feat of strength, there is no reason to believe that Chubb will be green-lit to start the season.
It would be far less surprising for Chubb to start training camp hitting the active/physically unable to perform list once the Browns hit training camp next week. That wouldn’t stop Chubb from starting the season on time (the reserve/PUP list would), but it would indicate that Chubb still has time to go before hitting the field this season.
Still, the expectation is that Chubb will suit up at some point this season, even if it takes him a while to get up to speed. Chubb’s RB40 tag is certainly enticing for Zero-RB builds on teams looking for late-season production, but there is still a long way to go before we know just how much he will be used this season (and if he will suffer any setbacks while getting up to speed). I’ll remain out on Chubb in 2024 unless we get the indicator that he will be ready to go in Week 1.
Biggest Faller
Ben Sinnott, TE, Washington Commanders
ADP: 186.8 (+14.6), TE24
Ben Sinnott’s ADP continues to plummet throughout the summer, falling another round since July 1. There hasn’t been any new news for Sinnott to fall, but fantasy gamers continue to push him down the board as other positional players rise and due to the belief that veteran Zach Ertz will have a significant role in his first season.
Sinnott started July as the TE19 on Underdog before his recent decline. Since the start of the month, he’s been jumped by veterans Cade Otton, Tyler Conklin, Noah Fant and Chigoziem Okonkwo. Sinnott has quickly fallen from a tight end that was likely overpriced after the position had a rookie renaissance in 2023 to a value in fantasy drafts due to his upside.
Early indications are that Sinnott will be used all over the field given his experience as a fullback and tight end at Kansas State. He doesn’t have the best collegiate production profile (82 receptions for 1,138 yards and 10 touchdowns in three seasons) but flashed plenty of athleticism in the pre-draft process. Sinnott can be deployed in a variety of ways in the Commanders’ offense and only has Zach Ertz (and his continually growing injury history) standing in his way.
Rookie tight ends are historically a bad bet to make in fantasy football, but at a certain point, the upside outweighs the risk. Sinnott has likely hit that point and could continue to fall in drafts, making him even more affordable as we get closer to the season.
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 169.2, QB23
Baker Mayfield is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, finishing as the QB10 in fantasy points (284.1) in his first season with the Buccaneers. Mayfield hit career highs in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044) and passing touchdowns (28) while throwing just 10 interceptions. Even with the strong production, Mayfield was far less useful for fantasy on a per-game basis (16.7 points, QB19) last year. Regardless, his play was rewarded with a three-year, $100 million contract this offseason.
Fantasy managers have been reluctant to buy the hype from Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense after offensive coordinator Dave Canales left the Buccaneers to serve as the head coach of the Carolina Panthers in 2024. Tampa Bay was able to sign former Kentucky offensive coordinator (and long-time Rams coach) Liam Coen to replace him during the offseason.
Even with the changes in playcaller, Mayfield is an interesting quarterback in fantasy. Tampa Bay returns Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton and Rachaad White in the passing game and spent a first-round pick to upgrade their interior offensive line. The team also used a third-round pick on Jalen McMillan to try and upgrade the receiver group.
Mayfield lacks the rushing upside that we crave for fantasy but showed in 2023 that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy production. He had eight total weeks with at least 18.4 fantasy points (the total of the QB12 last season) and four weeks with 20 or more fantasy points. He should once again be a steady QB2 in fantasy, even with a change in his offensive environment in 2024.
Running Back
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
ADP: 60.3, RB14
Joe Mixon finished as the RB11 in PPR formats during his final season with the Bengals, averaging 15.7 fantasy points per game. The veteran running back commanded a three-down role in Cincinnati throughout his career but saw his role in the offense expand in the last three years. Since 2020, Mixon has averaged 253 carries, 1,017.7 yards and scored 29 rushing touchdowns. He also averaged 62.3 targets, 51.3 receptions and 377 receiving yards per season with eight receiving touchdowns out of the backfield.
Mixon was traded to the Texans this offseason, but his role in the backfield likely won’t change much.
Throughout the offseason, the Texans’ coaching staff has continually praised Mixon’s ability to function as the team’s workhorse running back next season. The Texans have a vision for Mixon evidenced by their willingness to not only trade for him but also extend his contract once he was on the team. The talent behind him (Dameon Pierce, Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale) doesn’t inspire confidence and has little to no chance of siphoning work from Mixon when healthy.
Mixon is going outside the top-12 running backs in fantasy drafts but is one of the few running backs that we can expect to handle the rushing and receiving work with little competition. He isn’t as explosive (or young) as many of the names going ahead of him in fantasy drafts, but his high-volume role should be coveted, especially in the fifth round of drafts.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 40.3, WR28
Wide receiver prices are pushed up everywhere, but Amari Cooper allows fantasy drafters the ability to select a running back (or two) in the early rounds while still securing a dependable WR1 in fantasy football. There has been plenty of noise about a training camp holdout for Cooper during the summer, but given how the NFL CBA is structured it shouldn’t result in any missed time during the season. That could open up an even better price for him in early drafts.
Cooper has been in the NFL for 10 seasons already, but just turned 30 years old. In his two seasons with the Browns, he has continued to dominate, averaging 130 targets, 75 receptions and 1,205 receiving yards while scoring 14 touchdowns. Cooper has posted consecutive top-20 WR finishes with the Browns, averaging 15 or more fantasy points in the last two years.
He’s expected to once again function as the WR1 in a Cleveland passing attack that we assume will be better with Deshaun Watson under center and healthy in 2024. However, Cooper proved that he can produce big numbers regardless of who is under center with Cleveland.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
ADP: 130.6, TE13
Dalton Schultz didn’t have a remarkable season with the Texans but put together enough production to finish as the TE10 in fantasy in total points (150.5) and the TE11 in fantasy points per game (10.0). From a production standpoint, his first season in Houston mirrored most of his tenure with the Dallas Cowboys. The veteran tight end caught 59 of 88 targets for 635 yards and five touchdowns, earning a three-year, $36 million contract during the offseason.
Schultz isn’t a dynamic receiver but has been able to produce through volume during the last four seasons. However, there should be questions regarding how much volume he will earn with Tank Dell returning from injury and the team’s acquisition of Stefon Diggs. Per the FTN Fantasy splits tool:
The veteran tight end saw an increase in production (both in NFL and fantasy football) without Dell in the lineup for seven games during his initial season with Houston. Not only will Dell return, but the Texans also traded for Stefon Diggs to bolster their passing attack. Diggs struggled down the stretch last season, but he remains one of the better target earners in the NFL after averaging 9.4 targets a game in Buffalo’s offense.
Fantasy managers already have doubts about Schultz given his TE13 price tag, but maybe we aren’t discounting him enough given the fact that Houston now has three legitimate target earners at wide receiver. It is hard to trust his current price tag as the TE13, even if it is the latest ADP for Houston’s skill players in 2024.
