Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The 2024 NFL season is just around the corner as June comes to a close. In under a month, teams will be going through their training camps to prepare for the 2023 season.
While most home leagues are still months away from drafting their teams, fantasy drafts have still been taking place over the past few months (especially if you’re a best ball player). The different phases of the offseason have all provided their meaningful data points whether it be free agency, the NFL draft or OTAs in June.
This week’s version of the ADP rumblings will focus on the biggest movers during June. ADP data will be coming from Underdog Fantasy since they have the most data points under their belt at this point in the offseason. As always, some ADP will be a little different than a traditional home league due to the importance of stacking.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (6/26)
Quarterback
Biggest Riser: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
ADP: 197.8 (-7.7), QB27
Early in the offseason, there was speculation that Daniel Jones would be in a quarterback competition with offseason acquisition Drew Lock for the starting quarterback spot with the Giants. However, as OTAs moved on it became clear that Daniel Jones will be the starter and seems to be on track to begin the season after suffering a torn ACL in 2023.
Jones’ ADP has climbed nearly eight spots over the last month, rising to the QB27 in fantasy drafts. Jones is very interesting at that price. The Giants have interesting pieces in their wide receiver corps, headlined by 2024 top-10 pick Malik Nabers. Jones struggled as a passer during his six games in 2023 (67.5% completion rate for 909 yards and two touchdowns with six interceptions), but still added value on the ground (40 rushes for 206 yards and a touchdown).
Just two seasons ago Jones finished as the QB9 in fantasy in his first season with Brian Daboll as head coach. The Giants have worked to upgrade pieces of the passing attack this offseason, bolstering the offensive line and adding Nabers to a pass-catching group that consists of Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt. If Jones is comfortable running to start the year, QB27 is an excellent value for a quarterback (and offense) that we expect to be better in 2024.
Biggest Faller: J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
ADP: 204.4 (+13.6), QB29
It wasn’t surprising when J.J. McCarthy was selected by the Vikings during the 2024 NFL Draft since that was one of the biggest connections made throughout the draft process. The presence of Sam Darnold, who took the first-team snaps during OTAs, has dropped McCarthy’s ADP almost 14 spots in June.
McCarthy looked like a 21-year-old quarterback with limited experience throwing the ball throughout OTAs, which shouldn’t be surprising. Michigan utilized a run-heavy approach during his time as the starting quarterback, limiting McCarthy to just 713 passing attempts during his three years in college. Darnold has NFL experience and has shown improvements since his early years with the Jets, especially in the final games of the 2022 season with the Panthers. In six games, Darnold completed 58% of his passes for 1,143 yards and seven touchdowns with just three interceptions. He also added 106 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.
J.J. McCarthy taking over the quarterback spot in Minnesota isn’t a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. The Vikings can lean on Darnold’s veteran experience for most, if not all, of 2024 to give McCarthy time to acclimate to the NFL. It will be hard to keep a first-round quarterback off the field, but given the lack of experience McCarthy has, the Vikings would do well to be patient.
McCarthy’s fall in fantasy drafts makes a lot of sense, especially with little to no indication that he will start the season as the team’s QB1. He’s a sensible QB3 given his upside in an offense featuring Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison should he make starts, but managers expecting immediate production should look elsewhere.
Running Back
Biggest Riser: Braelon Allen, New York Jets
ADP: 185.5 (-28.6), RB58
Braelon Allen was a highly productive rusher during his time with Wisconsin, amassing 597 carries for 3,494 yards and 35 touchdowns in three collegiate seasons. There were questions throughout the pre-draft process about his speed and the lack of power running despite his size that ultimately went unanswered. That caused Allen to fall to the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft with the Jets.
Allen’s ADP rose throughout the offseason thanks to Breece Hall not taking part in OTAs due to a lower-body injury. Allen was able to show off his ability to run between the tackles and also made numerous plays down the field in the passing attack, a skill that he didn’t show much during his time in college. That, paired with the belief that Allen would be the primary handcuff for Hall, caused Allen’s ADP to jump 28 spots throughout June.
If Allen can truly secure the primary backup spot on the Jets’ running back depth chart, his elevated ADP (RB58) makes a lot of sense. We expect the Jets offense to be better with Aaron Rodgers healthy behind an upgraded offensive line. Breece Hall will certainly lead the backfield (and is a true three-down back), but he has had injuries to begin his NFL career. However, Allen will probably not be a true 1 for 1 replacement for Hall and could see the passing role go to more explosive options like fellow rookie Isaiah Davis or second-year player Israel Abanikanda.
Allen’s price is reasonable given how he looked during OTAs, but fantasy managers shouldn’t get too far over their skis. Breece Hall will certainly be healthy by the time the season starts and will dominate touches in this backfield.
Biggest Faller: Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
ADP: 140.2 (+24.7), RB43
Fantasy managers are slowly coming to terms with the fact that Nick Chubb could miss a significant portion of the 2024 season. Chubb suffered a brutal knee injury that required multiple surgeries to fix last year. The fact that Chubb stated he has no timeline to return during OTAs fueled a two-round drop in fantasy drafts.
Still, fantasy managers are taking Chubb as the RB43 in drafts in hopes of getting a big addition to their running back group later in the season. Given the nature of Chubb’s injury and the complicated timeline, that does not seem like a wise decision. The Browns have no incentive to rush Chubb back into the backfield and have several experienced running backs on the depth chart to allow them to take their time with his healing process.
Even if Chubb does return, he likely will do so in a rotational role that will allow him to get up to speed. If the Browns find themselves out of the playoff race in a challenging AFC North, then we may not see Chubb at all as the team prepares to compete in 2025.
There don’t seem like any avenues for Chubb to pay off his discounted RB43 price tag this season. He should continue to fall in drafts.
Wide Receiver
Biggest Riser: DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots
ADP: 168.3 (-18.6), WR75
Somebody has to emerge as a pass catcher with the New England Patriots. Based on the current ADP, the favorite in the clubhouse is second-year player DeMario Douglas. He has seen his ADP drop 18 picks since the start of June.
Douglas had a successful rookie season for a day-three draft pick. He led the Patriots in targets (79) and receiving yards (561) during his first season. He was second on the team in receptions (49). Douglas showed off his playmaking ability and will likely enter 2024 as the slot receiver for the Patriots offense. It helps that Douglas was making plays throughout OTAs.
It never feels good drafting a Patriots player in fantasy drafts, but this offense can’t be much worse than it was last season. The team invested heavily in the offense this offseason, bringing in Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye to bolster the quarterback position and adding rookie receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. Even with all those additions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Douglas emerge as the most targeted player in New England for a second straight season.
Will DeMario Douglas finish as a top-24 receiver in 2024? That feels very unlikely. However, he has a chance to provide usable fantasy weeks and can easily outperform his WR75 price tag.
Biggest Faller: Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos
ADP: 173.4 (+10.8), WR77
The social media draft community loved Troy Franklin heading into the draft process. Many viewed him as a potential first-round pick due to his big play ability and production during his final season at Oregon (81 receptions for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns). Franklin didn’t do well in the draft process, coming in smaller (6-foot-2, 176 pounds) and slower (4.41 40-yard dash) than expected. He also struggled with the gauntlet drill during the draft.
Franklin was eventually taken in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft by the Denver Broncos. Even with this updated data point, Franklin’s ADP has been slow to adjust. He’s the biggest faller among wide receivers but hasn’t even fallen a round in fantasy drafts this month. Fantasy managers are undoubtedly clinging to his reunion with college quarterback Bo Nix in Denver and a lack of target competition for reasons to keep taking him at WR77.
There isn’t a great path to Troy Franklin consistently beating that ADP in 2024. We expect that the Broncos will be bad on offense and will continue to utilize a run-heavy approach in 2024. If the offense isn’t throwing much, it will be hard to get there with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. ahead of him on the depth chart. Of course, if the team opts to trade Sutton, then Franklin becomes far more interesting as a prospect.
Drafting Troy Franklin at ADP won’t be the reason fantasy managers lose in 2024, but there don’t seem to be any reasons to believe that he will be a league winner either. This is a Day 3 rookie on a bad offense with a rookie quarterback. There are better upside shots to take, even in this range of the draft.
Tight End
Biggest Riser: Jelani Woods, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 204.1 (-8.7), TE26
There haven’t been many big movers at the tight end position this offseason, but one player who has climbed in recent weeks is Colts’ tight end Jelani Woods.
Woods missed the 2023 season due to hamstring issues on both legs. While he flashed as a rookie in 2022 (40 targets, 25 receptions, 312 yards and three touchdowns) he was an extremely raw prospect coming out of college that needed game reps to develop. He did not get those last year.
Still, Jelani Woods is an interesting play for fantasy managers who want to get an affordable piece of the Colts offense. Indianapolis spread 119 targets to four different tight ends in 2023 with Kylen Granson (50 targets, 30 receptions, 368 receiving yards and a touchdown) as the primary beneficiary. Woods is the most physically talented player in the receiving room (6-foot-7, 252 pounds with a 4.61 40-yard dash) and produced more as a raw rookie. At the very least, he should be a primary read in the end zone.
The tight end position is deeper than it has been in years for fantasy, but Jelani Woods can still be an interesting dart throw at the end of rounds. He has the speed to make explosive plays in the middle of the field and the size to become a primary read in the red zone for touchdowns. Historically at the tight end position, that is enough to make him fantasy relevant.
Biggest Faller: Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 209 (+37.6), TE28
Juwan Johnson is the biggest faller at tight end after suffering a foot injury during OTAs. Johnson is expected to be ready for the start of the season, but the injury has caused him to drop 37 picks in ADP to start the offseason.
Fantasy managers were already critical of the Saints’ offense this season, which makes Johnson’s fall in drafts reasonable. That, combined with the continued utilization of Taysom Hill, has scared fantasy managers enough to drop Johnson three full rounds in fantasy drafts.
Assuming that Johnson is truly ready for training camp, that may be an overreaction. The Saints have historically utilized a tight end in their offense and Johnson has shown that he can be productive when on the field over the last two seasons (124 targets, 79 receptions for 876 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns). Given how much the Saints have passed the ball over the years, he seems like a bet worth taking a flier on at the end of fantasy drafts.
