Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The offseason continues as teams work through their summer programs. Mini camps are underway across the NFL, which means more news, more beat reporters, and big swings in ADP on platforms like Underdog.
Here at FTN Fantasy, we work to parse through all of this information to give actionable advice to our readers. Throughout June, you can expect biweekly updates in these ADP articles. They will become weekly once July is underway and more people are drafting.
As always, the ADP in this article is based on Underdog ADP, a best ball platform that has been holding drafts for months. While some of the ADP data could be influenced by the importance of stacking in that format, most of it should be reflective of what will happen in fantasy drafts later this summer. Check out this week’s ADP rumblings below.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (6/12)
Biggest Riser
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets
It isn’t surprising that 2024 fourth-round pick Braelon Allen is climbing in drafts after his playmaking ability in minicamp started hitting social media. He was the highest riser on Underdog over the last two weeks, jumping up 18.7 spots in drafts.
Allen has gotten an opportunity to work with the first-team offense thanks to a lower-body injury to Breece Hall that is keeping him out of on-field work. Beat writer reports indicate that Allen has flashed good vision and made plays downfield as a receiver.
The rookie was highly productive during his three seasons at Wisconsin (597 carries for 3,494 yards and 35 touchdowns) but wasn’t used much in the passing attack (49 receptions for 275 yards in his career). Allen took a ding in the pre-draft process for not testing, but he’s got the size to be a physical runner in the NFL (even if he didn’t always show that ability in college).
While Allen is a player that should be drafted in best ball given the lack of waivers, it seems unlikely that he will carve out a major role on the Jets with Breece Hall on the team. At best, he would be a waiver wire target in redraft or a bench stash in deep leagues.
Biggest Faller
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Camp highlights and reports will often drive ADP in early drafts, but they can also have an adverse effect. Nick Chubb has seen his ADP fall 16.2 spots in the last two weeks as he continues to progress through his knee rehab.
Chubb hasn’t practiced so far in the summer (and likely won’t) after suffering a brutal knee injury in Week 2 of the 2023 season that required multiple surgeries to repair. It seems increasingly likely that he will start the season on the PUP list and could even miss time before the four required games. The Browns haven’t put a solid “return timeline” in place for Chubb.
Cleveland returns Jerome Ford (204 carries for 813 yards and four touchdowns) and Pierre Strong from their backfield in 2023 and added D’Onta Foreman (109 carries for 425 yards and four touchdowns) and Nyheim Hines in free agency. The team has multiple contingency plans on the roster to allow Chubb the most time to heal and contribute.
Historically, we see players struggle to return to 100% after simply suffering a torn ACL. The fact that Chubb tore more than that and required multiple surgeries makes it hard to trust him in fantasy in 2024.
Other ADPs
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 171.4, QB23
Geno Smith was a revelation in 2022 taking over for Russell Wilson, completing 69.8% of his passes for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Smith secured a top-10 finish in both fantasy points per game (18.5) and overall points (314.9), making him the perfect quarterback sleeper.
Unfortunately, the veteran quarterback was not as successful in 2023. His completion percentage (64.7%), passing yards (3,624) and touchdowns (20) all dipped, leading to a pedestrian 15.7 fantasy points per game, which was the QB20 among quarterbacks with 10 or more starts.
Fantasy managers, likely stung by Smith’s play in 2023, have responded accordingly, drafting him with pick 171.4 in best ball drafts. However, that seems harsh given the weapons at Smith’s disposal and the arrival of Ryan Grubb, the former Washington Huskies’ offensive coordinator who helped create one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
Over the last two seasons, Grubb oversaw and offense that finished top two in passing yards per game. Grubb’s offense not only produced a top-10 draft pick at quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.) and wide receiver (Rome Odunze) but also helped two other players (Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan) get drafted on day two of the draft. Grubb was able to design an offense that was able to utilize the skillsets of all three players, which will come in handy given his new offense has DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett.
Smith enters the 2024 season as the QB23 in ADP despite the considerable passing weapons at his disposal and a new offensive coordinator that has been able to utilize multiple receivers. Seattle also spent both free agent and draft resources to bolster their offensive line, which should only help Smith’s effectiveness as a thrower. He’s a great pick at his current ADP and has all the tools to exceed his modest ADP.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
ADP: 113.4, RB34
Many were excited to see what Tyjae Spears could do as the lead back in Tennessee after the Titans moved on from Derrick Henry during the offseason. Unfortunately, that hype was considerably dampened when the Titans signed Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.7 million contract. At best, Spears will now be splitting the backfield with Pollard. At worst, he will see a similar role in 2024.
Still, not all is lost with Tyjae Spears as he’s already shown that he can thrive in a complementary backfield role in 2023. In his rookie season, Spears posted top-10 marks in target share (14.7%), yards per touch (5.5), juke rate (26.3%) and breakaway run rate (7.0%). Spears also finished top-10 among running backs in receptions (52) while playing a 52% snap share.
Throughout his career, we have seen Derrick Henry command the lion’s share of backfield work given his size and effectiveness over time. With him gone, this backfield will likely rely on a heavy rotation of Pollard and Spears so that each player can remain fresh and at their best.
The Titans also invested heavily in their offensive line this offseason, signing Lloyd Cushenberry III to fortify the center position and drafting JC Latham as their left tackle of the future.
Spears may not hit the level we hoped for in 2024 with Pollard as his backfield mate, but he can still return value and earn a bigger role in an offense without Derrick Henry.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
ADP: 146.9, WR68
Every year, some rookies exceed our expectations and provide excellent fantasy value. One player who is going under the radar that can provide strong production as a rookie in New England Patriots’ wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk.
Polk was viewed as a Day 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but many were surprised when the Patriots took him with the 37th overall pick, making him a second-rounder. Polk was a consistent producer throughout his college career but had a stellar final season with Washington as they made a push for the National Championship. He finished second on the team in targets (69), receiving yards (1,159) and touchdowns (9). Polk had seven games with 100 or more receiving yards and 10 games with five or more receptions.
The rookie has also performed well throughout training camp, building a relationship with 2024 first-round pick Drake Maye and making acrobatic catches in the red zone. Time will tell how the Patriots’ depth chart at receiver will pan out, but Polk is relatively free in fantasy drafts. At 6-foot-1 and 203 pounds, he has the size to play on the outside or in the slot and the athleticism (4.52 40-yard dash) to be a playmaker his first year in the league.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP: 139.6, TE14
The tight end position can be difficult to figure out in fantasy, but one player going under the radar in early drafts is Steelers’ tight end Pat Freiermuth.
Few players in the Steelers’ offense were more impacted by the poor quarterback play last season than Freiermuth. In Freiermuth’s rookie season (with Ben Roethlisberger), the rookie posted 60 receptions on 79 targets for 497 yards and seven touchdowns. His second season was better in many ways, with Freiermuth setting career-highs in targets (98), receptions (63) and receiving yards (732). Unfortunately, his fantasy production dipped thanks to just two touchdown receptions.
Freiermuth struggled in 2023 while trying to navigate an injury that cost him five games. He had career-lows in targets (47) receptions (32) and yards (308) with two touchdowns. As much as the injury limited him, the subpar quarterback play was worse.
Not only is Freiermuth getting a quarterback upgrade in 2024 with Russell Wilson and/or Justin Fields, but he’s also going to be in an offense that values the production from the tight end position. Former Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith takes over as the offensive coordinator, and while many aren’t enthusiastic about the move, it could be a boon for Freiermuth in his fourth season.
In 2023, the tight end combination of Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith totaled 160 targets, 103 receptions, 1,249 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Tight ends drew a 31% target share in Smith’s final year with Atlanta.
Freiermuth won’t assume all of that workload, especially with Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward playing a role on the offense. However, taking a bulk of that workload in the passing game will make it easy for him to beat his current ADP (TE14) and will have him in the conversation for top 10 tight-end production.
