Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The offseason rolls on, and fantasy drafts are ticking up, which means the ADP data that is coming in is getting more and more refined. Players are moving up and down the draft boards and seeing their value move weekly, so we will continue to analyze that movement to find the best value in fantasy drafts.
This week, the article will focus on the best values at each respective position in fantasy drafts. Some of these players are early-round selections, and some are late-round sleepers, but all of them should have fantasy relevance in 2024. Check out the ADP rumblings for the final weeks of May below.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (5/29)
Biggest Riser
Zay Jones, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The biggest riser in ADP on Underdog over the last two weeks is veteran wide receiver Zay Jones. Jones was cut from the Jacksonville Jaguars after the team drafted Brian Thomas Jr. in free agency and went unsigned through most of the offseason. Now he finds himself in an Arizona Cardinals wide receiver room that features Marvin Harrison Jr. and little else. His ADP has jumped up nearly two full rounds (23.6 picks) since his signing.
Jones has bounced around in recent years but enjoyed the best stretch of his career from 2021 to 2023 with the Raiders and Jaguars. During that three-year window, Jones averaged 85.0 targets, 54.3 receptions, 563.3 receiving yards and 2.7 touchdowns per season. Jones doesn’t have a season in his career with over 900 receiving yards but does have two with at least 5 touchdowns. He’s shown the ability to function well as a team’s secondary or tertiary passing option.
That works perfectly in Arizona. The Cardinals have at least 206 vacated targets to fill from passing weapons like Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz in 2023. Harrison will take on the bulk of that work in the passing attack, but there is little competition behind him. Greg Dortch (41 targets, 24 receptions, 280 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns in 2023) is a slot-centric player who is too small to see a full complement of routes. Michael Wilson (58 targets, 38 receptions, 565 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns) had a solid rookie season but failed to emerge down the stretch with an increased opportunity.
In Arizona, Jones has a path to be third on the team in targets behind Harrison and third-year tight end Trey McBride. While there isn’t a path to him being a top-36 receiver in the future, he can provide solid scoring weeks and easily surpass his WR88 price tag.
Biggest Faller
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
The rise of Zay Jones in ADP has been felt the most by second-year receiver Michael Wilson, who has fallen 13.6 picks in ADP since the Jones signing. Wilson, a third-round pick in the 2023 draft, had an unremarkable rookie season in a passing attack that was looking for weapons to emerge.
Wilson’s ineffectiveness wasn’t due to a lack of opportunity. The rookie had nine games with at least four targets in his first season, but only four games with four or more receptions. He certainly wasn’t helped by missing three games of Kyler Murray’s return due to an injury. In total, Wilson played just five games with Murray in the starting lineup. The only receiving metric that saw improvement during that time was his targets per game.
Now, Wilson enters his second season with arguably more competition in the passing attack. Trey McBride emerged as a target earner at tight end in his second season (team-leading 106 targets), and the team selected Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick in the draft. Arizona also added Jones to compete for targets on the outside and kept Greg Dortch under contract. If Wilson can earn a path to consistent playing time, he has a chance to build upon his rookie season. But if he ends up buried behind a talented rookie and solid veterans, then it will be hard for him to grow without injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.
Other ADPs
Quarterback
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
ADP: 103.4, QB16
Fantasy managers continue to downplay Jared Goff’s ability in fantasy football. The Lions quarterback is currently going off the board as the QB16 in Underdog’s ADP despite playing behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and an array of explosive weapons surrounding him in the passing attack.
Goff has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons while completing at least 65% of his passes. While he did throw 12 interceptions in 2023, it came as a result of the second-most pass attempts of his career (605). Last season, Goff finished as the QB11 in fantasy football (minimum 12 starts) with 17.8 fantasy points per game. It was his second consecutive season with 17+ points per game at the quarterback position.
Ultimately, Goff doesn’t have access to a top-five fantasy season due to his lack of rushing ability and the importance of those points in fantasy football. However, he can provide back-end QB1 scoring and is at the very least a high-end QB2. He remains an excellent value in fantasy, locking in a solid weekly floor at the quarterback position that allows managers to target skill positions in the early rounds of fantasy drafts ahead of him.
Running Back
Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
ADP: 147.4, RB45
One player who has a huge upside in 2024 is second-year running back Kendre Miller. Injuries cost him the bulk of his 2023 season, but there were glimpses of NFL-level ability when he was healthy. Now he enters 2024 healthy and coming off a high point in his season.
Miller was limited to just eight games during his rookie season due to a college knee injury and an ankle injury suffered in Week 9. From Weeks 3-9, he worked in a complementary role, averaging just four carries and 11.9 yards per game. However, he did catch nine of 10 targets for 111 yards during that time. The rookie emerged healthy in Week 18 and saw his highest snap share of the season (36%). He turned the increase in playing time into 13 carries for 73 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and a touchdown.
The injuries are a concern for Miller, but if he’s healthy, he has a chance to earn a much larger role for the Saints in 2024. Alvin Kamara isn’t getting any younger and looked like he was starting to slow down in 2023. Additionally, the Saints paid Jamaal Williams in 2023 but chose to seldom use him. While Miller likely won’t take the bulk of the work from Kamara next season, he is poised to see a consistent role in the Saints offense.
Miller is currently going off the board as the RB45 in Underdog drafts, which is fair given his lack of production last season and the questions surrounding New Orleans’ offensive line. However, if he earns a larger role in the offense (or Kamara suffers an injury), then Miller could easily surpass that modest draft slot this season.
Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
ADP: 55.3, WR33
Terry McLaurin remains one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. The veteran receiver has four straight seasons with at least 15 games played (including three straight of 17 games). During that time, he’s averaging 129 targets, 80 receptions and 1,091 yards per season. He’s also scored 18 touchdowns during that stretch. Even more impressive is the fact that he’s been able to produce those numbers with Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Carson Wentz, Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett under center.
McLaurin now heads into his sixth season with arguably the best quarterback under center in his career. Washington selected LSU’s Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Daniels is fresh off a Heisman season that saw him throw for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns while adding 1,134 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Daniels is accurate and has an excellent feel for deep passes and should be able to consistently get McLaurin the ball.
Even better for McLaurin is the fact that the new offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury, is at the helm of the offense. During his time with the Cardinals, Kingsbury ran one of the highest rates of run/pass option plays (RPO) in the NFL. These plays are designed for the quarterback to read the defense to decide whether to hand the ball off or throw and are typically designed to be a one-player pass route. McLaurin will likely be the read on these plays, which should mean an increase in targets.
McLaurin is currently going off the board as a back-end WR3 in fantasy drafts but could see career-high levels of volume with the Commanders in 2024. If that happens, he will easily have a top-24 WR upside and could even flirt with a top-12 finish in his sixth season. He’s currently an excellent value in fantasy drafts and should provide a strong weekly floor.
Tight End
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 76.3, TE8
Evan Engram is one of the best values in fantasy drafts at the tight-end position. Engram emerged as the top target for the Jaguars in 2023, leading the team in targets (143) and receptions (114) in his second season with the team. He also finished second in receiving yards (963) and touchdowns (4). He finished as the TE5 in fantasy points per game with 10.2 points (minimum 12 games played), his second consecutive season with a top-10 finish.
The veteran tight end has developed into one of the top options in the team’s passing attack. In 2023, he finished behind only Calvin Ridley in first-read targets (24.3%) in the offense. He was also third in red-zone targets (6) behind Ridley and Zay Jones. Both of those players are gone now, which opens up more opportunities for Engram in 2024. He will still be competing with Christian Kirk for targets, but outside of him, he will be trying to earn targets over a rookie (Brian Thomas Jr.) and free agent acquisition Gabe Davis. Engram is entrenched as this team’s second target and should once again command his fair share of work in the passing game.
Finding a tight end in fantasy comes down to talent and opportunity (ability to be a top 2 target earner in the offense). Engram has both working in his favor and could once again be a value at his TE8 price tag in fantasy drafts.
