Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Fantasy football draft season is finally heating up, with best ball drafts in full swing and many dynasty leagues holding rookie drafts. Rookie minicamp is underway, which means it is time to fully embrace the hype of the next crop of young talent entering the NFL.
Underdog Fantasy started its Best Ball Mania drafts the Monday after the NFL draft, which means we have had a couple of weeks to let ADP settle in for rookies heading into their first season. This version of the ADP Rumblings will focus on rookies at each position to determine if their value is fair or elevated given the inevitable rookie hype. Each position (minus tight end) will also feature a late-round rookie who could pay big dividends in their first season.
As always, the ADP in this article is focused on Underdog Fantasy since they have a solid data set of drafts over the last few months. That means that some ADPs could be a little off from traditional draft platforms given the importance of stacking in the best ball format. Check out this week’s risers and fallers below.
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (5/15)
Quarterback
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
ADP: 94.5 (QB11)
Unsurprisingly, Caleb Williams is coming off the board as the top rookie quarterback in best ball drafts after he was selected first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. In a lot of ways, his elevated draft position makes a lot of sense. We have never seen a rookie quarterback dropped into a situation like this, featuring a solid offensive line, a strong backfield and several high-end passing attack weapons.
However, there will be some challenges in drafting Williams at cost in current fantasy drafts. Currently, Williams is going off the board as the QB11 and a top-100 pick. For many, that means pushing the draft button on Williams means that you are working under the assumption that he will finish as your weekly QB1. While that isn’t unheard of, that is a lofty expectation to place on any rookie, especially one with a limited rushing upside (based on his college tape).
Last season, we got a QB11 season from C.J. Stroud. Statistically, that means we need to expect Caleb Williams to have a similar season to Stroud as both a passer (4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns with five interceptions) and a rusher (167 rushing yards and three touchdowns). We may get that caliber of season from Williams given his collegiate production, but betting on that outcome from a rookie is a risky game. There are far more examples of first-round quarterbacks in recent memory (Bryce Young, Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, etc.) who have failed to hit that historic production than those who succeeded.
Taking Williams is a gamble that can pay off. But at ADP, it is a significant risk to take a rookie quarterback over other options that have recently posted a QB1 season like Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
ADP: 209.0 (QB30)
We can argue all day if Bo Nix should have been drafted in the top 12 picks of April’s draft, but it is irrelevant now. Many saw Nix as a reasonable Day 2 pick, but Denver selected him in the first round, and now we need to adjust our priors and accept reality.
Many football fans can’t forget Nix’s rough tenure as the starting quarterback for the Auburn Tigers in his first three seasons. During that time, Nix threw for 7,251 yards and 39 touchdowns with 16 interceptions while completing under 60% of his passes. Nix transferred to Oregon after his third season and immediately saw his production skyrocket. Over two seasons in Oregon, Nix completed over 71% of his passes (including a record-setting 77.4% completion percentage in 2023) for 8,101 yards and 74 touchdowns with 10 interceptions.
There won’t be much competition for Nix to claim the starting job in Denver. His primary competition is Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham as the veterans on the depth chart. It seems almost certain that Nix will claim the starting job early in the season, if not outright in training camp. Denver features a strong starting offensive line, a wide receiver coming off a 10-touchdown season (Courtland Sutton) and two young, explosive pass catchers (Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin).
Nobody is saying Nix should be a team’s top quarterback option, but he could be a strong QB2 or QB3 option in best ball and have a solid floor in Superflex leagues. Nix is all but guaranteed to start most of this season and could easily outperform his current QB30 price tag in a quarterback-friendly offense.
Running back
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 101.7 (RB30)
Most fantasy analysts agree that the 2024 NFL Draft class lacks the star power of the 2023 class. While there wasn’t as much pure talent as last season, there were still some good landing spots available in fantasy football. One of those spots was in Arizona, where James Conner was surrounded by subpar journeyman running backs. The Cardinals addressed their running back depth in the 2024 class, selecting Florida State’s Trey Benson in the third round.
The presence of James Conner has done a good job suppressing Benson’s value in early fantasy drafts, keeping his ADP outside the top 100 and placing him firmly in the RB3 landscape. Few running backs in this class feature the combination of Benson’s size (6-foot-0 and 216 pounds) and speed (4.39 40-yard dash). However, Benson was a timeshare back during his time in college. At Florida State, Benson never had a season with more than 156 carries or 1,000 rushing yards. While he flashed solid receiving chops (33 receptions for 371 yards and a receiving touchdown in his career), he is hardly labeled as a “pass-catching back.”
However, despite the questions about his role and his college production, Benson is an excellent target in fantasy drafts. Yes, Conner will enter the 2024 season as Arizona’s lead running back. However, he has a history of injury issues that have limited him to 13 games played or fewer in five of his seven professional seasons. Conner was efficient last season as a rusher (career-high 5.0 yards per attempt) but posted career lows in targets (33), receptions (27) and receiving yards (165).
Benson could easily take on a solid portion of this backfield from Day 1 as an explosive complement to Conner with a better pass-catching upside. If Conner suffers a significant injury, then he has the size and speed to function as the three-down back in Arizona’s improving offense.
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills
ADP: 157.8 (RB48)
If you are looking for a late-round running back to target in fantasy drafts, then Buffalo’s fourth-round pick Ray Davis makes a lot of sense. Davis is an older prospect after playing five seasons in college, but he made the most of his time during stops with Temple, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
Davis was at his best during his final season with Kentucky. He finished the season with 199 carries for 1,129 yards (5.7 yards per attempt) and 14 rushing touchdowns. He also had a fantastic season as a receiver, catching 33 passes for 323 yards and seven touchdowns. He now lands in a backfield in need of a power complement to James Cook.
Cook is the unquestioned lead back after a successful 2023 season, but despite his growth as a runner, he was used primarily between the 20s. That led to plenty of high-value touches going to veteran running backs like Latavius Murray and Damien Harris. Once Buffalo got inside the 10-yard line in 2023, they started to lean heavier on Murray in the run game. Murray had more carries (17) and touchdowns (4) on those attempts compared to Cook (16 and 1 respectively). The veteran also had an established role in the two-minute situation.
While James Cook may take on a bigger role in the Bills’ offense in 2023 now that Murray and Harris are gone, the presence of Ray Davis suggests that Buffalo is still fine utilizing different running backs in different roles. Davis is relatively cheap as the RB48 in fantasy drafts and worth the gamble that he can take down a high-upside role as the team’s goal-line running back.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
ADP: 13.4 (WR9)
For many, Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the best wide receivers to enter the NFL since the draft class that brought us A.J. Green and Julio Jones. And it is hard to argue that he doesn’t belong in that lofty company. Harrison just posted consecutive seasons at Ohio State with at least 67 receptions, 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. He measured in as a true outside receiver (6-foot-3 and 205 pounds) and flashed enough speed in college to be a downfield threat (even without verified testing numbers).
The recent success of rookie wide receivers transitioning to the NFL has led to a ridiculous surge in Harrison’s ADP, where he is currently going off the board as the WR9 with an ADP of 13.4. Yes, the rookie receiver enters a thin pass-catching depth chart in Arizona and was a top-five pick in the NFL draft, but that price is hard to fathom, even for a prospect of his caliber.
For Harrison to pay off at his ADP, he would need to replicate the production of Nico Collins in 2023. That was a career year for Collins where he set career highs in targets (109), receptions (80), receiving yards (1,297 yards) and receiving touchdowns (8). Collins benefitted greatly in that season with his primary target competition being a solid tight end (Dalton Schultz), a rookie who played in 11 games (Tank Dell) and a washed veteran (Robert Woods).
Harrison won’t have a ton of target competition, but there are some solid pieces in place for Arizona. Trey McBride is a target hog at tight end (106 targets in 2023) and both Michael Wilson (38 receptions for 565 yards and three touchdowns) and Greg Dortch (24 receptions for 280 yards and two touchdowns) had solid stretches.
Many will expect Harrison to have a similar impact to Puka Nacua as a rookie in 2023. However, part of Nacua’s appeal in fantasy was the fact that he was practically free. Fantasy managers are drafting Harrison around Nacua’s current price tag and hoping for more. Historically, that is a bad bet to make.
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 209.9 (WR87)
If you’re looking for an inexpensive wide receiver that can pay off in 2024, then a potential target in fantasy drafts will be 2024 third-round pick Jalen McMillan.
McMillan had a highly successful college career but was overshadowed in his final season by Rome Odunze thanks to an injury he suffered early in the season. Before the injury, McMillan was arguably playing at the highest level of any of Washington’s receivers. In his first three games, McMillan had 20 receptions for 311 yards and three touchdowns. He then missed four weeks before returning for the team’s playoff run. The rookie receiver was poised to surpass his strong production in 2022 (79 receptions for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns) before getting hurt.
McMillan measured in well at the combine (6-foot-1 and 197 pounds) and ran a strong 40-yard dash for his size (4.47). While there will be legitimate target competition in Tampa Bay in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, there is very little veteran talent on the depth chart outside of those receivers. All McMillan has to do is beat out Trey Palmer (68 targets, 39 receptions 385 yards and three touchdowns) and a bunch of UDFAs for targets in the offense.
There is a chance that McMillan is a day 1 starter on an offense that will throw the ball down the field. McMillan is available in Rounds 17 and 18 in fantasy drafts and could have a big upside in his first NFL season.
Tight End
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 98.7 (TE10)
Brock Bowers was a prolific tight end at Georgia, leading the team in major receiving categories during all three of his seasons on campus. The tight end had three straight seasons with at least 56 receptions, 700 receiving yards and at least six touchdowns. Bowers is a receiving weapon that flashed the ability to break big plays after the catch.
Bowers was selected by the Las Vegas Raiders with the 13th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. While the draft capital was fantastic for a tight end, it was arguably one of the worst landing spots for the rookie tight end. The Georgia product will not only have to compete with 2023 second-round tight end Michael Mayer but also target earning receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Both Adams and Meyers earned over 100 targets in 2023. The duo combined for 174 receptions, 1,951 yards and 16 touchdowns while dominating the targets.
There is a path for Bowers to assert himself as the team’s secondary target in the passing attack in 2024 given his versatility on the football field. However, his current ADP (TE10) is assuming that it is a sure thing. Bowers is a fine pick that could pay off, but the tight end position is deeper than recent seasons and that is an unnecessary gamble until we see his utilization on the football field.
At this point, Bowers makes far more sense in a dynasty than he does in a single-season redraft at his current price.
