2024 Best Ball Fades

Multi-entering a large field tournament such as Best Ball Mania is all about managing exposures, and creating a portfolio that mirrors your player takes. We’ve spent a lot of time highlighting players to target who we perceive are undervalued with room to rise throughout the offseason. In this article, I’m going on the opposite end and breaking down a handful of players who I believe are being overvalued relative to the market.

I’ll focus on players being selected inside the top 12 rounds and avoid mentioning any quarterbacks, who are usually brought along by their stacking partners. As the saying goes; “Don’t hate the players, hate the ADP.” Although I expect a lot of movement once training camp kicks off, if these prices hold, here are the players I am currently fading at cost.

2024 Best Ball Fades at ADP

Calvin Ridley, Wide Receiver, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 56.2, WR35

There was a lot of excitement for Calvin Ridley around this time, especially at the start of training camp. He was getting steamed up to the 2-3 turn based on a few drills against air. In Week 1, the hype seemed well warranted with Ridley erupting for eight catches, 101 receiving yards and a touchdown while seeing a team-high 11 targets. However, as the season progressed, Ridley’s production was a lot more volatile. He finished outside the top 45 among wide receivers in 56.25% of games in the fantasy regular season (nine out of 16 games). He finished as the WR24 overall in Weeks 1-17 but saw a significant dropoff with Christian Kirk on the field for at least 70% of the team’s offensive snaps and averaged just 10.9 half-PPR points per game. Among all qualified receivers in 2023, Ridley finished 66th in ESPN’s receiver rating (48) and ranked outside the top 40 in PFF receiving grade (72.2, 41st). Now entering his age-29 season, and turning 30 in December, Ridley finds himself in a completely new system with a major downgrade at quarterback. He’ll be catching passes from Will Levis, who ranked 32nd in PFF passing grade among all signal-callers who attempted at least 135 passes last season. He’ll also have to compete for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, who is going a full round later, despite being the much better player and already possessing an established rapport with Levis. Tyler Boyd may be on the back nine of his career but still has the most familiarity with new head coach Brian Callahan from their time together in Cincy.

Trey Benson, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 109.1, RB31

Trey Benson was the second running back off the board in the 2024 class and selected at the top of the third round by Arizona at 66 overall. Although the draft capital was somewhat promising, relative to the state of the position, the landing spot was less than ideal, at least for a rookie. Benson joins a backfield led by team captain James Conner, who when healthy has been nothing short of a workhorse, operating as a three-down back with multiple different coaching staffs. In Jonathan Gannon’s first season as head coach, Conner saw nearly 20 opportunities per game (19.6), excluding Week 5 when he left midway through the second quarter with a knee injury. He averaged 19.1 touches and over 95 yards from scrimmage during that span (96.6). When on the field, Conner was dominant and finished second among all running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts in yards after contact (3.9) and missed tackles forced (0.29) per carry. He was also fourth in explosive rush rate and gained 10-plus yards on 15% of his carries. When asked about Conner’s role entering his age-29 season, Gannon spoke glowingly on his conditioning and recovery, stating that, “If you think that certain guys start to fall off because they get a little older, he’d be the one to delay it, I know that.”

Conner hasn’t played more than 13 games in back-to-back seasons, which bodes well for Benson’s contingent upside. However, with an ADP inside the top 110 picks, Benson needs Conner to miss multiple games to pay off his price, and he may not offer much stand-alone value when both backs are active. 

Dalton Schultz, Tight End, Houston Texans

ADP: 129.7, TE13

Dalton Schultz fared well in his new home in Houston and finished second on the team in targets (88) and receptions (59), trailing only Nico Collins and Tank Dell in receiving yards (635) and receiving touchdowns (5). He finished just inside the top-12 among tight ends (TE11) and averaged 8.1 half-PPR points per game. However, a lot of Schultz’s production was bolstered by injuries. He saw less than five targets (4.8) and averaged 32.3 receiving yards and 7 half-PPR points in eight games with both Collins and Dell playing on at least 40% of the Texans’ offensive snaps. Now entering his second year in the system, Schultz faces even greater competition for targets with the addition of Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs earlier this offseason. Mixon may not profile as a typical pass-catching back, but he is a bigger threat than Devin Singletary, who has totaled 30-plus receptions and 280-plus receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. As for Diggs, although he has started to show signs of decline, he’s consistently commanded volume and has seen triple-digit targets in five out of the last six seasons. Schultz may also be at risk of losing snaps to rookie tight end Cade Stover, who was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 draft.