Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
When one door closes, another one opens. Just because the regular season is over does not mean the fantasy season has to end. Underdog Fantasy has launched its NFL 2022 Playoff Contests with buy-ins ranging from as little as $5 up to $250. There are slight discrepancies and nuances between the different contests, but the general strategy remains the same.
For a more in-depth down, check out Tyler Loechner’s “Underdog Best Ball Playoff Strategy” article, or watch Mike Randle’s “NFL Underdog Best Ball Tournament Key Strategies” video on YouTube.
Playoff Best Ball
Like traditional best ball, there is no in-season management, so you do not have to worry about setting your lineup, making trades or maneuvering around the waiver wire. Simply draft your team, sit back and watch as the highest-scoring player at each position will automatically slot into your starting lineup. However, unlike the regular season, instead of selecting players from all 32 teams, there are only 14 teams in the playoffs, creating a much smaller player pool. As a result, Underdog has cut the number of users in each lobby from 12 to 6 and shrunken drafts to 10 rounds instead of 18. There will also be two fewer players capable of cracking your lineup with a maximum of five starters each week.
A starting lineup consists of one quarterback, one running back, two wide receivers/tight ends and a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end). I recommend drafting 1-2 quarterbacks, 2-4 running backs and 4-7 WR/TEs for most drafts. Although proper roster construction is critical, it’s important to understand that once teams are eliminated, the players on said teams will no longer contribute to your roster. This places greater value on players with a greater chance of reaching the Super Bowl. You must also create a balance of AFC and NFC players, ideally predicting the correct Super Bowl matchup. It may sound easy to target the No. 1 seed from both conferences (Chiefs and Eagles), but keep in mind they have a bye in the first week, which means you will unlikely have enough players to advance out of the first round. The number of teams that advance each round varies among contests, so be sure to read the rules and adjust your strategy accordingly. In this article, I’m going to go position-by-position breaking down the top plays in the tournament.
All Super Bowl odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl Odds: +400
Josh Allen is in a tier of his own as the only player averaging 24-plus points per game (24.3) who also has the ability to play all three games. Despite finishing behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts in points per game in the regular season, the scoring difference is marginal and is not enough to make up a vacated roster spot in the first round. Although Allen and the Bills are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, they hold the second-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (+400), trailing only the Chiefs (+350). It’s also worth noting that if both teams advance to the Conference Championship, the game will take place on a neutral field due to the fallout of the Damar Hamlin situation. The Bills defeated the Chiefs in Kansas City the last time the two teams met and will likely be in a better position the second time around without any home-field advantage.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl Odds: +500
In his first full season since 2019, Christian McCaffrey picked up right where he left off, playing all 17 games and finishing as the RB2 in the regular season. Thanks to the 49ers’ midseason trade, McCaffrey went from being left out of the playoff contest entirely to the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Although McCaffrey marginally trailed Austin Ekeler in fantasy scoring, he is the top pick among all running backs, given his likelier path to the Super Bowl. The 49ers are the favorites to make it out of the NFC and have the third-best odds of winning the Super Bowl (+500). On the other hand, the Chargers have the seventh-longest Super Bowl odds (+2,000) and are only one-point favorites in the first round against the Jaguars. If you remove McCaffrey’s first game with the 49ers, when he played on less than 30% of the snaps, he actually edges out Ekeler in points per game and is the only non-quarterback to average 19-plus half-PPR points per game (19.17). Because the 49ers do not have a first-round bye, McCaffrey is the strongest candidate to lead the position in scoring and play all four games.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl Odds: +400
For everything mentioned above for Josh Allen can be applied to Stefon Diggs. Among playoff contest-eligible wide receivers and tight ends, Diggs is the third highest-scoring player at the position but has significantly greater odds of advancing into the Super Bowl. Although Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill outscored Diggs in the regular season, both the Vikings (+3500) and the Dolphins (+6000) rank outside the top 8 teams to win the Super Bowl. The Bills face the Dolphins in the first round as -10.5 home favorites, meaning Hill will face an uphill battle to suit up in more than one game. Like Diggs, Jefferson is a home favorite, but the Vikings have a much tighter spread, laying just 3 points to a 9-win Giants team. If they move on to the second round, they will likely have to travel to San Francisco and open up as heavy dogs against the 49ers. As a result, Diggs’s path to playing all three games while staying in the top echelon of scoring makes him the best option at the position.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl Odds: +350
Travis Kelce was a cheat code in the regular season, scoring 88.9 half-PPR points, 5.3 points per game better than the TE2 in T.J. Hockenson. Although you are no longer required to start a tight end in the playoff contest, Kelce should still be viewed as an elite flex option, regardless of his position designation. Among all wide receivers, Kelce would have ranked top five at the position and fourth among playoff-eligible players. The Chiefs have the shortest odds of winning the Super Bowl (+350), making Kelce the likeliest of the high-end flex options to play in the final week. The main knock for drafting Kelce is the first-round bye, putting drafters in a deficit early. However, with Underdog’s top-heavy prize structure, most of the money is won at the end, usually by the team that rosters the most players in the Super Bowl.
