Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
After a riveting Super Wild Card Weekend filled with high-scoring affairs, the Divisional Round was 4-0 to the under, much to the dismay of fans. In the AFC, the Chiefs defended their home field despite Patrick Mahomes suffering a high-ankle sprain in the second quarter, and the Bengals – as 6-point underdogs – throttled the Bills in Buffalo.
So, the stage is set. The 2023 AFC Championship game will be a rematch of last season, with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Cincinnati Bengals as slight favorites.
AFC Championship Game Neutral Site
If the Bills had defeated the Bengals, the AFC Championship game would have been played in Atlanta. However, the Bengals’ victory means the Chiefs will once again host the conference title game.
AFC Championship Game Odds
Here are the odds for each team to win the AFC Championship:
Why are the Kansas City Chiefs Favored to Win the AFC Championship?
The Kansas City Chiefs earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC and handled their business after the bye week to advance to the AFC Championship game. In other words, they’ve been the favorite and done nothing but live up to that billing thus far. The kicker, of course, is Patrick Mahomes’ health. Mahomes has given every indication that he will play no matter what happens in the next week with his ankle, but it would be almost impossible for him to be 100%.
If reports surface later this week that Mahomes is not as close to 100% as the Chiefs anticipated, we’ll likely see this line shift in favor of the Bengals. Inversely, if Mahomes miraculously recovers and is fully healthy, this line would almost certainly hover around a field goal. Oddsmakers and bettors are playing a dangerous game by taking a stance on this game without knowing the full extent of the likely MVP’s status, but the Chiefs have been the better team all season when fully healthy.
Best Bet to Win AFC Championship
TBD
Mahomes’ health will fully dictate this pick for me, but I lean toward the Chiefs based on early reports. This is their fifth straight AFC Championship game, and they undoubtedly have revenge on their minds (everyone loves a good narrative) after blowing an 18-point lead to these Bengals in this game last year and sacrificing another lead against them in the regular season. To be safe, I’d rather wait for more news on Mahomes and take the Chiefs as three-point favorites than take them now only to learn he’s not nearly as healthy as initial reports suggested.
Check back later this week for a more in-depth breakdown and a more confident best bet to win the AFC Championship.
