First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
It’s a short and sweet intro this week. If you’re reading this, you’re likely in your fantasy football league championship and know what you’re doing. With it being the final week, the “10 Things” lean heavier on start-sit decisions than usual, as nothing else matters in fantasy football after Week 17 (unless you’re a sicko who plays in Week 18).
Thank you for reading this season. This series has been my favorite to write, possibly ever, and I hope to have helped in some small way on your path to championship glory.
1. Bryce Is Right
Maybe the midseason benching did fix Byrce Young? Coming off his best performance of the season, Young’s recent play suggests it’s not a fluke. Since the Panthers’ Week 11 bye, Bryce Young has a 6:3 touchdown:interception ratio and an additional three rushing touchdowns. In Week 17, he faces Tampa Bay, who’s been extremely generous to the opposing quarterbacks and ranks as the second-best DVOA-Adjusted Points Against matchup for the position. Dare I say, he’s a must-start in superflex and a rock-solid option in 1QB leagues.
2. Hall Pass Granted?
Breece Hall hasn’t been particularly efficient this season, but he’s dominated touches when he’s healthy. That volume, paired with facing the third-best DVOA-APA matchup for running backs, is a recipe for championship-winning production. According to FTN StatsHub, Buffalo has allowed five touchdowns to backs over the previous three weeks, four on the ground and one through the air. Hall has to be one of the 2024 season’s biggest disappointments, considering his late first, early second-round ADP coming into the season. But he can help ease the effects of that burn by battering Buffalo in the fantasy championships.
3. Herbert Alert: Proceed with Caution
Justin Herbert has been good, not great, over the past five weeks or so. Since Week 11’s big game against the Bengals, Herbert’s thrown just five passing touchdowns, four of them over the past two weeks. He’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in two of his previous five and over 250 just once over that span. The Chargers Week 17 matchup with the Patriots should be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week, with the FTN Betting Model projecting a point total of 43.1 at the time of writing. I’d avoid adding Herbert to Week 17 lineups.
4. Packers’ Pass Catchers are Prime Plays
Hopefully, you didn’t depend on any Packers players outside of Josh Jacobs in Week 16. But in Week 17, the cheeseheads will atone for their sins. We could very well have an NFC North shootout Sunday afternoon. One of the highest point total projections on the week, the FTN Betting Model, has the projected points for this game at 47.9.
Even better is the Vikings’ ranking as the top DVOA-APA matchup for wide receivers. Regarding receivers, WR1s have the most difficult time against Minnesota, with WR2s and WR3s having better DVOA-APA matchups. Regardless of whether it’s Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson (if active), fire up your Packers pass catchers.
5. White Lightning to Strike Carolina
Sometimes, it is that simple — the Panthers rank as the best DVOA-APA matchup for running backs. Over the past four weeks, the Panthers have allowed four catches per game to the running back positions. Rachaad White may no longer be the RB1 on the Bucs, but he can produce through the air. Over his last three games, he’s caught 11 passes for 86 yards and two touchdowns. White has six touchdown receptions on the season and six games with five or more catches. He’s a decent RB2, but preferably a high-end flex play with a sky-high ceiling in a potential shootout.
6. Kupp Runneth Over: Time to Move On
It appears Cooper Kupp may have officially passed the WR1 torch to Puka Nacua. The 31-year-old Rams receiver has 11 total receptions in his previous four games, including a big fat goose egg in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs. Kupp has fewer than 25 receiving yards in three games over that stretch and one lonely touchdown. The matchup is solid against the Cardinals, but with Nacua’s action as Stafford’s top option and recent poor play, Kupp’s potential for a bounceback isn’t worth the risk and has simply run out of gas.
7. Merry Chig-mas to All
Chig Okonkwo‘s late-season surge has been one of the most unexpected December performances since Rudolph’s legendary Christmas Eve flight. Okonkwo’s rise is partially thanks to his Mason Rudolph under center.
According to the FTN Splits Tool, Chig averages about three extra points per game, with Rudolph under center. He’s averaged 8.5 catches and 10.5 targets over the last two games and faces Jacksonville in Week 17, the seventh-best DVOA-APA matchup for TEs. Chig is a top-10 option at tight end in Week 17.
8. Don’t Overlook the 49ers’ Passing Game
The Lions’ defense has been dominant against the run this season but quite the opposite against the pass. The already banged-up secondary recently took another hit, losing CB Carlton Davis to a broken jaw in Week 15. The 49ers host said Lions Monday night, and while the San Francisco pass catchers were mostly disappointing in Week 16, a matchup with the second-best DVOA-APA matchup Lions puts them all back on the starting radar. Deebo Samuel Sr. was likely in most lineups after his bounce back, but he and Jauan Jennings must start, and even Ricky Pearsall makes for a fine flex play.
9. Don’t Overthink It: Start James Conner
I’ve seen a lot of questions regarding starting James Conner if active this week. Easy answer: Without question. He’s been one of the few bell cow backs this season and has a solid matchup in a potentially high-scoring game. His most talented backup, Trey Benson, is also banged up and may not play. Conner has 15 or more carries in four straight games and four or more catches in three straight. Outside of a report that says Conner will have his touches reduced significantly, if he’s active, he’s in my starting lineup.
10. Championship Week: It’s All About the Numbers
This is it. Where you drafted a player doesn’t matter. Their name value doesn’t matter. Their nearness and dearness to your heart don’t matter. Fantasy football is already a weekly game. In the fantasy championship, this week is all that matters. Do not be afraid to make a move where you bench a big-name player for a waiver wire pickup or a “lesser” player who’s been on fire. Start Chig Okonkwo over Kyle Pitts. Start Ladd McConkey over Tee Higgins and DJ Moore. Heck, start Drake Maye over Justin Herbert. Peel away the names. Look at the stats. Look at the numbers. Don’t lose a championship because you “just can’t sit a guy you drafted in the first round.”
